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2022 NFL season: Predicted win share leaders on offense and defense

Inspired by wins over the bench in baseball and true plus-minus in basketball, I created a metric to measure each player, positional group, and ball side in every NFL season Contributions in offense. I call it WIN SHARE to reflect the fact that every team has 11 players working together on the field at any one time, which means that the “sharing” part is a very important factor – and interconnecting requires a lot of Time to Model

This metric is built around the number of first touchdowns and touchdowns that a player influences leading to a win or loss, whether by creating a first touchdown on offense. Rounds and touchdowns are still defended by blocking them. Both on-ball impact (such as when targeting the wide receiver directly) and off-ball impact (such as when the wide receiver pulls coverage away from other players on the field, resulting in a better matchup for others) are measured . Victory share adds up all positive on-ball and off-ball play and subtracts negative ones to help attribute value to each player and stage of the game, expressed as the number of wins each player is responsible for in a game individual level for a particular season. Personnel on the field, game situations and matchups are all taken into account to the extent possible.

Now the important part: Who will take the NFL’s win share in 2022? Below, you’ll find the top five predicted leaders for quarterbacks, non-quarterback offensive players, and defensive players, along with their predicted win shares for the 2022 campaign. I also added some notes about the units. You might be surprised by some of the rankings.

Let me know what you think! You can reach me on Twitter @cfrelund.

Josh Allen

Buffalo Bills · 6.56 wins

Last season was a special one for Allen, who finished in several next-gen stat categories Leads the NFL in low-court passing touchdowns (24-of-10-plus yards), steals outside-passing touchdowns (12) and TD passes on the run (12). He also became the only quarterback in NFL history to have at least six rushing touchdowns for the fourth straight year. Ken Dorsey, who was coached as offensive coordinator after Brian Dabore left the Giants, took over command duties. For many quarterbacks, this will yield lowernet impact to win share, but for Allen the numbers went up. Why? Thanks to his excellent high-pressure situation stats, it bodes well for success under the new coordinator when it comes to past signal callers with a similar profile and experience to Allen. Allen led the league in fourth quarter and overtime completion percentage (70.8) last season, and his 18 TD strikes in third/fourth trailing tied the NFL last season (with Tom Brady) for the most. Allen easily leads all quarterbacks with 31 rushing touchdowns since entering the league in 2018. He also had 6.3 yards per rushing touchdown last season, one of the best in the NFL.

My favorite computer vision metric for Allen: He threw 7 of his 11 fastest passes in the NFL last season. It’s not a super predictive statistic, but as a cherry on top, it’s an interesting one. Ellen has an absolute cannon.

Green Bay Packers · )6.45 wins

Computer vision display when using different When it comes to speed (how fast the ball travels), Rodgers is the most accurate QB. Basically, in my 10-season sample, he has the most accurate library of different “pitches” in the league. I say this to emphasize that Rodgers has a lot of different ways to create chances for his receivers, which is a big deal after Davante Adams moved to Las Vegas.

The back-to-back reigning league MVP leads the NFL in passing rating of 122.6 when not under pressure in 2021, but he also saw the biggest drop in pressure, down 68.7 to 53.9. I don’t expect the latter number to be this low in 2022. Rodgers’ versatility of accuracy sustains huge upside potential.

Kansas City Chiefs · )6.39 wins

Tyrek Hill’s exit has clearly changed the way Kansas City’s offense and operations work, but my projections show the Chiefs’ totalThe receiving Legion’s share of wins could easily exceed the combined 2021 units. Computer vision shows that Mahomes’ off-the-field passing ability is unmatched since he became a full-time starter in 2018; he had the most mid- and deep-completions in that span when his feet weren’t fully set, and Most touchdowns. Mahomes’ ability to pass the ball reliably regardless of the throwing plane is a huge plus, especially if the QB wants to play with a lot of new pass-catchers.

Sure, you can leave Mahomes out without adding that he’s still the best man to fight the Blitz. He leads the NFL in passing yards per attempt (10.8) and completion percentage (73.8) when facing the Blitz in 2021, according to Next Gen Stats. I keep mentioning this because he faced the Blitz at a very low rate last season (12 dropbacks percentage), underscoring the fact that everyone knows he’s going to make you pay for extra pass rushers .

Tampa Bay Pirates · )6.22 wins

Due to some changes and injuries on the offensive line, Chris Godwin may start the season Not going to be fully healthy, Rob Gronkowski is sticking with retirement (for now), the Goats have his job and he’s out in 2022. Last season, Brady was fired just 2.2 percent against the Blitz — the lowest in the NFL, according to NGS. Brady also leads the league in deep pass attempts (20+ yards in the air) in 2020 and is tied for most in 2021.

Still, while there’s more pressure on Brady this season, it doesn’t anticipate that it won’t stop the 45-year-old from performing at an extremely high level. Deep passing may have dwindled early in the season, but first drop and touchdown potential drove the fourth-highest win share among quarterbacks.

Josh Allen


Cincinnati Bengals · 6.14 wins

Burrow completely ruined my model last season. His ability to overcome pressure — and his ability to be efficient the next game after pressure — is the best in my 20-season sample, and it’s not even close. Last season his passing rating after pressure was 99.1; in my sample, playoffsThe QB in this case is 60.4. The fact that he recovered from a season-ending ACL injury is impressive.

According to NGS, Burrow led the league in completion percentage (64.3) and yards per attempt (9.7) under pressure last season. All of his pass completions were six times higher than expected.

Philadelphia Eagles · 5.82 wins

Hurts has the eighth-best projected win percentage among quarterbacks, which helps drive my forecast for Philadelphia to win the NFC East. NGS showed that Hurts led all quarterbacks in rushing yards (72), rushing yards (377) and rushing touchdowns (8) last season in designed runs. Fun fact: In 78 sprint attempts, the damage was also over 15 mph, the most of any position 24 sprints.

If you’re an Eagles fan — or if you like the expected strengths of my model — you should consider telling your friends that Hurts is the league’s best MVP Sleeper candidates.

Tennessee Titans · RB · 2.35 wins

Henry’s prediction since I started using my model six seasons ago Best value I’ve observed for an off-ball running back this season since preseason predictions. Without AJ Brown, Henry’s ability to attract attention creates an important base win level for the Titans. According to Next Gen Stats, he has averaged 4.7 yards per attempt against 8-plus defenders since 2016 (second in the NFL with 150 minimum attempts, behind Nick Chubb). According to Pro Football Focus, Henry leads the NFL with 5,250 rushing yards after contact in the same period.


Indianapolis Colts · RB 2.25 wins

Yes, the defending champ should be 1.01 in your fantasy league choose. With Indy’s stout offensive lineandchanges to QB – which should result in a more consistent passing game, Matt Ryan replacing Carson Wentz – Taylor’s chances at all stages are better than last season, even with touches decreased. Next Gen Stats shows that Taylor is leading all running backs in 2021 with a more-than-expected 481 yards, the second-highest number in a single season since the NGS began tracking the metric in 2016. Only Lamar Jackson has had one season, and that happened in his 2019 MVP race (+631). According to PFF, Taylor has more rushing yards after contact (1,272) than any other player in total 2021.

Minnesota Vikings ·WR · 2.22 wins

Earlier this summer, Jefferson called himself a better catcher than defending Triple Crown champion Cooper Cooper: “Koop is good, But I’d say he’s behind me.” I admire his confidence – the model supports him! For context, Kupp’s projected win share is 2.11. There are some nuances here, like Koop now has Alan Robinson and Matthew Stafford has a higher projected win shares than Kirk Cousins. Since 2020, Jefferson’s 12.9 receiving yards per target in the face of media coverage is second in the NFL, trailing only Koop’s 13.7, according to Next Gen Stats.But Jefferson on these goals with 1,249 total receiving yards, leading the league in that span. Finally, since 2020, Jefferson leads the NFL with 97 catches for over 10 yards; on those low-field passes, the next closest catcher is Stefon Diggs with 73.

Kansas City Chiefs · )TE·2.18 wins

This is the first time in the top five since I started using my model to predict non-QB offensive win shares A tight end appears in the name! Computer vision showed that Kelce’s ability to change direction without losing speed was the best of any player at least 6-foot-4 over the past four seasons. This helps him have the highest red zone win percentage in the same period. Also, logically, Kelce’s off-ball value this season is the highest I’ve ever tracked to this point. NGS shows that since 2016, Kelcher has led all tight ends (30 yards) in receiving (30) and receiving yards (905), and in deep passing (20-plus), And he’s tied for the most touchdowns in that stretch with eight touchdowns. Meanwhile, PFF revealed that since 2020, Kelcher has led the tight end with 58 touchdowns and first touchdowns — the highest numbers in the league at 24.

    Pittsburgh Steelers · Aaron Rodgers RB 2.17 wins

    Harris is my 1.02 fantasy pick of the season — by the way By the way, because win share also affects off-ball impact, but it’s still worth mentioning. The value of coming back the next year greatly outweighs the fantasy score, especially considering a) Pittsburgh is breaking into a new QB for the first time in nearly 20 years, and b) my model doesn’t predict a Steelers offensive line in the top 25 at 53 at a time The list of people has been determined. Harris accounted for 83.5 percent of Pittsburgh’s offensive steals last season, the highest percentage of any RB in 2021, according to NGS. Harris made 179 rush attempts in the paint against six or fewer defenders, but averaged just 4.2 yards per rush. Largely because defenses use formations that anticipate short-area gains (short passes or runs) without an explicit loading box. This season, Harris’ upside projections are based on the fact that an increase in mid and deep passing should create more space for him to run and catch the game. It would also give him more chances to hit full speed, driving a massive jump in overall production. More efficient complementary football means Harris has more yards per touch.

  1. Los Angeles Rams · )DT · 2.41 wins

    Exploring Donald’s jaw-dropping transcendence never gets old. Three more notes to add to the ledger:

    Donald Ranked in the top six in pressure every season since 2016, according to Next Gen Stats, and he is sixth in 2021 with 64 points.Pro Football Focus praised his Ranked first among 114 interior linebackers with at least 150 steals in 2021 with 22.9 steals and passes.Computer vision shows that Donald has played doubles and threes at a 79.8 percent rate since 2017, which is 14.1 percentage points higher than any other interior linebacker during that period.

    San Francisco 49ers · )DE · 2.20 wins Aaron Rodgers

    My model gave Bosa this season Best chance to lead the league in the sack game. He produced 68 pressure attempts last season, fourth-best in the NFL, according to Next Generation Stats. According to PFF, he is one of only six full-backs to score over 90 points on the pass in 2021. Computer vision showed that his fatigue level (speed erosion between the first and fourth quarters) was the lowest of any linebacker since he entered the league. League 2019.

    Xavien Howard

    Pittsburgh Steelers · OLB · 2.17 wins

    Watt’s win took an individual hit as Pittsburgh’s defensive front piled up, which was obviously great for the Steelers as a whole. NGS shows that 37.5% of Watt’s pressure last season resulted in sacks, the third-highest rate in the NFL (minimum of 200 pass attempts). That helped him complete 22.5 sacks in 2021, tying Michael Strahan’s single-season record. The PFF shows him fourth in passing percentage (out of 108 qualifying margins) at 21.4%.

    Miami Dolphins · CB·1.98 wins

    A nice nugget from Pro Football Focus: Howard’s 63.1 passing rating since 2020 is in Ranked third in corner kicks during this period. He also recorded the most men’s reports (539) and had nine interceptions for men’s reports during that time. This season, the Dolphins’ potential is just rightDefensive pressure and frontcourt interceptions make it more likely that the X-led screeners will return to the dominance they were a few years ago.

    Side note: going through this workout made me realize there are a lot of underrated corners in the NFL today. Considering he got first-team All-Pro honors in 2020, but AJ Terrell is. CB8 (by projected win share) is someone we can’t talk enough about.

    Arizona Cardinals · S·1.89 wins

    So there are top-five tight ends offensively and “safety” defensively? ! convince menotchange Gameplay – I’ll wait. To be fair, I put Baker’s position in quotes because he’s not really traditionally safe, which is what drives the disproportionate value. NGS shows that he has recorded 282 pass-steals since entering the league as a second-round pick in 2017, the third-highest among defensive backs — and the QB pressure he’s gained in that span is among DB’s 2nd (45). When Baker is deployed as a free safety in 2021, he allowed six receptions for 83 yards and one touchdown while defending eight passes and recording three picks, according to PFF. Buda’s value is even higher this season due to changes to Arizona’s defensive front (without Chandler Jones), which will require the Cardinals to rely more on the unique skills the playmaker possesses.

    Follow Cynthia Frelund on Twitter.

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