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This week’s Sunday Night Baseball game features a showdown between two National League powerhouses. The defending World Series champion Warriors will face the Cardinals in St. Louis as they look to make the playoffs for the fourth time in a row.
The Warriors and Cardinals have been the best in baseball lately one of the teams. The Cardinals went 23-10 in the second half, while the Warriors went 23-11. That has both teams pretty much cemented their place in the playoffs, with FanGraphs giving both teams at least a 96 percent chance of making the playoffs.
Atlanta won Game 1 of the series, but St. Louis bounced back on Saturday with a comeback victory. Can Cards Win the Rubber Game? Let’s break down five of my favorite Sunday night baseball bets on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Both teams are known for being aggressive. The Warriors averaged 4.98 runs per game, third in the majors, while the Cardinals’ 4.87 was fourth. Both teams will send right-handed pitchers to the mound on Sunday — both teams are in the top nine in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers.
However, in this game, the starting pitcher may upper hand. The Cardinals will turn to Adam Wainwright, who has puzzled hitters for nearly 20 years. He’s still very effective at 40, with a 3.11 ERA in 25 starts this season.
Jake Odorizzi has a different reputation, but he’s almost as effective. His traditional ERA is slightly worse than Wainwright’s, but his 4.01 xERA is slightly better.
When the two starters finally leave, they will Hand over to the high quality cowshed. The Warriors have the sixth-best bullpen ERA — and while the Cardinals aren’t doing well overall, they still have some great relievers behind their bullpen. More recent Ryan Helsley was particularly annoying, posting a 0.89 ERA in 50 2/3 innings.
This total ended up feeling a little too high, with some drastic Activity. I’ll give it a try if it’s under 8.5.
While I was expecting a low score in this game, I love the Cardinals Opportunity to play early. Aldorizzi was at his worst early in the game. He had a 6.89 ERA in the first inning, his worst mark of any inning this season. Opposing batters averaged .339 and .411 on-base percentage against him in that inning, while his strikeout-to-walk ratio was just 2.5:1.
Navigating the top lineup in St. Louis is also extremely tough. Possible NL MVP and potential Triple Crown winner Paul Goldschmidt looms at No. 3, while Nolan Arenado has had a monster season as a clean-up hitter. If it weren’t for Goldschmidt, Arenado would likely be the MVP favorite.
Unsurprisingly, the Cardinals have been in the first inning Elite. They scored in the first 34.65 percent of the time, the third-highest frequency in a major. This number increases to 41.27% at home, and +200 means that the implied probability is only 33.3%. This makes this bet a solid value.
First-hit props are a Relatively new product on DraftKings Sportsbook And the lineup is very important. The visiting team’s starting batsman has a chance to start, followed by the second and third batters. If any of those batsmen are hit, the home team doesn’t even have a chance to win the prop. This is why the visiting team’s top three batsmen have the lowest odds, followed by the home team’s top three batsmen. Ultimately, the vast majority of players in this game will bat without ever having a chance to record the first hit of the game.
Wainwright was pretty stingy in the first game. He allowed opposing batsmen to average 0.238, one of his lowest in any innings. The Warriors’ offense also tends to get off to a slow start, ranking only 18th in first-inning scoring percentage.
If I bet on the Cardinals to score in the first inning, then It would definitely help if they had their lead runner on base. Nootbaar is expected to bat first for the Redbirds, who have quietly had a terrific offensive season. He has worn out right-handed pitchers, posting 150 wRC+. If Wainwright can keep the Warriors out of the hot column, I like Nootbaar’s chances of getting the job done.
The first home run prop is not like the first hit Items are so dependent on lineup points. The first home run can come in any inning, so you can just focus on the player you think is the most valuable.
To me, that person is Arenado. Both teams have plenty of power, but Aldorizzi has far more fly balls than Wainwright. Aldorizzi’s 45.1 percent fly rate would be tied for fifth-highest in the league if he has enough pitching innings to qualify.
Arenado is also having his best offensive season- — Considering the monster stats he posted in Coors, that says something. His 162 wRC+ was easily his career best as he hit 27 homers in 496 games. Arenado’s power numbers are better for left-handers, but his .233 ISO for right-handers is nothing to sneeze at.
This bet is the culmination of everything I’ve talked about so far. If the game is under 8.5 points but the Cardinals generate most of the offense, they’ll score 4 or less in a win in many cases. If all goes well, this bet will only add a little benefit.
I am DraftKings The promoter of , who is also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca), may sometimes use my personal account to play games in games for which I advise. While I express my personal opinion on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the views of DraftKings and do not represent that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All clients should use their own skill and judgment in building the lineup. I might also deploy a different one than what I recommended above Players and strategies. I am not a DraftKings employee and do not have access to any non-public information.
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