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Analysis – China poised to shake economic leadership as reformers pull out

Yao Ming

BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s ruling Communist Party is laying the groundwork for next month’s biggest overhaul of its economic leadership in a decade, with a generation of reform-minded Policymakers are expected to step down amid a deteriorating growth outlook.

Beijing’s five-year reshuffle begins with the October party congress 16, and President Xi Jinping is ready to break precedent And get a third leadership term. The party’s secret meeting will provide clues about who is at the top and determine who will succeed Li Keqiang, who stepped down in March after two terms as prime minister to run the world’s second-largest economy.

Lee’s role under Xi is widely seen to have diminished, but he is a comfort to investors who see him as a moderate voice in the Xi transition

“Li’s powers are limited, but at least he was appointed at the same time as Xi Jinping. His successor may be weaker,” said one policy insider, speaking on condition of anonymity, given the sensitivity of the matter sex.

“Under the existing political structure, whoever takes over (as prime minister) will be

except Lee, 70 years old Along with Xi Jinping 25, Shu Qing 16 is also likely to step down early next year,

The retirement age of top leaders is usually 68 or two Five-year term.

Li, 68, holds a Ph.D. in Economics from elite Peking University and is fluent in English.

Liu, a vice premier and Harvard-trained economist, is a close friend of Xi Jinping and his key figures in trade talks with Washington. He is seen as the brain behind early reforms, including painful efforts to reduce excess ss Factory capacity and financial risks.

Limited space

In contrast, China’s next economic team may be domestically cultivated without international acumen, academic knowledge Xi Jinping loyalists dominate policy Industry insiders and analysts say the current team is polished and independent.

The two frontrunners to replace Li are Wang Yang, 67, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, Chairman of the Advisory Body, and Vice Premier Hu Chunhua, 59.

Although the two Wang and Hu, who served as leaders of Guangdong’s economic powerhouse, are seen as pragmatic, pro-reform officials who may have limited ability to make big changes, according to policy insiders.

Others longer term The targets of the prime minister, they say, include Chongqing party secretary Chen Min’er and his Shanghai party secretary Li Qiang. Both are considered loyal supporters of Xi Jinping.

Policy insiders say, He Lifeng, head of the National Development and Reform Commission, is the main candidate to succeed Liu. An economist and bureaucrat with close ties to Xi, he has worked in Fujian province 25 years.

In his later years 2013, the newly appointed Xi Jinping announced a comprehensive reform plan, but market liberalization has lost momentum.

“The party congress will have plenty of room to choose a new economic team,” said Burt Burt, director of the East Asia Institute at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore. Hoffman said.

“If the team is a technocratic team pursuing a pragmatic agenda to achieve the broad goals outlined by Xi, we could see 2013 decide Many unfinished reform agendas in China have resurfaced and are expected to see growth, said Hoffman, former World Bank director for China.


The new economy team will inherit the unprecedented challenge from finding an exit f from what many believe is increasingly unsustainable zero corona virus Policies to threaten financial stability and the real estate crisis with growing tensions with Washington.

The chaotic crackdown on tech companies and private education has hit investor and business confidence, prompting Li and Liu to express support for the so-called platform economy. ” said Joerg Wuttke, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China. The chamber plans to publish a paper before the conference, proposing nearly 1 article 000 Proposals to improve conditions for European companies in China.

“The Chamber believes that the best way for China to realize its economic potential is to return to the path of reform and opening up,” he said.

There are few signs that China will see a significant relief from the coronavirus any time soon, with some analysts expecting the economy to grow by just 3% this year, which would be the fastest rate since 1976 Slowest growth, excluding 2.2% growth during the initial outbreak of Covid-19 2020.

Lee struggled to keep the economy steady while pushing for limited change , seems keen to leave his mark on the public memory as a reformer.

After visiting Shenzhen, the rural-to-large city and the birthplace of symbolic reform, the four-year high-speed When growing Shenzhen, Li said, this trend is irreversible.

“China’s reform and opening up will continue to advance. The Yellow River and the Yangtze River will not flow backwards,” he said last month at the Yantian port in Shenzhen.



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