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Analysis – Investors pin their hopes on Türkiye's economic future on new cabinet picks


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by Karin Strohecker and Libby George

LONDON (Reuters) – The Turkish government’s top decision-maker’s choice to re-elect President Tayyip Erdogan is coming into focus as markets try to gauge his Will it reverse course toward economic orthodoxy or double down on policies widely viewed as unsustainable.

Erdogan is widely expected to use his victory in Sunday’s elections to start a massive cabinet reshuffle, which could change The financial and economic mix and leadership of the central bank, as his reign enters its third decade.

In recent years, foreign investors have turned to Turkish bonds and stocks. See lira loss over 10% over the past ten years. On Monday, the lira fell to a record low.

Erdogan’s increased interventions to stabilize the lira, as well as his insistence on ultra-low interest rates, have a negative effect on Turkey’s budget and financial The department is under enormous pressure. With reserves dwindling, there is little doubt that change is inevitable. But exactly how deep and meaningful these will be remains uncertain.

” In an environment of highly concentrated decision-making, the market will only pay attention to the economic team when a change in the economic team indicates a decisive shift in decision-making changes,” said Emre Akcakmak of East Capital, an asset manager that invests in Turkish equities.

The economic policy divide came days before Sunday’s vote, when members of the ruling party gathered to discuss how they could adopt a new policy of gradually raising interest rates. policies and targeted lending programs.

“The final decision related to the finmin (finance minister) position may provide some strong signals about the economic policy of the new term,” Ercan Erguzel in 50200 Barclays (London:90BARC

), And pointed out that there have been efforts to bring back former finance minister Mehmet Simsek, whose health is respected by the market.

“If the market sees the appointment of a Simsek or similar figure of orthodoxy soon, expectations for a quick return to orthodoxy will grow.”

Others worry that the scars left by the revolving door of key economic and monetary policy institutions will persist. The personnel changes come as Erdo arranges to crowd out technocrats and hollow out the institutional capacity of the central bank and finance ministry.

Over the past four years, the central bank alone has had four governors at the helm.

” Surrounded by supporters who seem to have been picked on the basis of loyalty, the danger is that the wise voices still left in the AKP are now far away. Too far away to have any impact on Mr Erdogan’s tenure decisions,” said Roger Mark, an analyst at fund manager Ninety One.

Erdogan has revealed little in the weeks and months what the shape of economic policy will look like, despite admitting more than SOME PROBLEMS FACING THE COUNTRY million people.

“The most urgent topic in the next few days is to alleviate the troubles caused by rising prices caused by inflation and make up for the losses caused by prosperity,” In his victory speech in Ankara, Erdogan said that the forecast inflation – around % in April – will go down, just like interest rates.

Tuncay Tursucu, founder of Tuncay Tursucu Research and Consulting, said that Erdogan’s speech emphasized “financial management with international respect” and raised Hopes for a policy shift.

” However, in order to make this rise permanent, it is necessary to determine the cabinet, to clarify the name of the economic management, and to declare a new economic roadmap (if there is one),” Tursuku said.

after Erdogan’s strong performance in the first round confounded polls and set the stage for his third decade in power Afterwards, pre-election optimism about a U-turn in economic policy largely faded.

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