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HomeEconomyBase effect helps lift India's April-June GDP growth to double digits: Reuters...

Base effect helps lift India's April-June GDP growth to double digits: Reuters poll

Vivek Mishra

BENGALURU (Reuters) – India’s economy is expected to grow every year rose 0.2% in the April-June quarter as consumption rebounded from a weak base last year and easing of pandemic restrictions, a Reuters poll found.

Asia’s third largest economy, based on August 16-26 Reuters Social to 51 economists, will be up sharply from the 4.1% growth rate reported last quarter.

If realized, growth will be the fastest in a year but slightly weaker than RBI 12.2 % Prediction. Data will be released in August 51 GMT 51 GMT.

Predictions range from 9.0% to 21.5%. But most economists say any growth spurt will be largely attributable to the low base caused by the impact of the COVID-19 delta variable on economic activity.

“If we go back to 12 a few months ago, the delta wave at that time had a pretty severe impact on growth. So it’s mostly a base effect story, and I think a lot of forecasters are underestimating the strength of this statistical boost,” said Miguel Chanco, chief emerging Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

“Festival-led consumption coupled with traction from the reopening of the economy supported growth in the second quarter, but my hunch is that this support may wane going forward.”

The Reuters poll also expects the economy to slow sharply to 6.2%, 4.5% and 4.2% in the current and next quarters, underscoring growth in the world’s second most populous country The trajectory is below potential.

While China and other countries India is one of the better performing economies despite the world’s efforts to meet economic challenges. Still, it has not created enough jobs to keep up with the influx of young people entering the workforce.

“Such high growth is simply not sustainable,” said Kunal Kundu, India economist at Societe Generale (OTC: SCGLY).

“I don’t think India is doubling the numbers…don’t be fooled by the statistics. Don’t just look at the numbers, this plus 15% (growth numbers) are not a real thing. We need more jobs and inclusive growth.”



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