Statistically, September was a bad month for the Bitcoin market. Investor returns for the first four Septembers were negative. The value of the largest cryptocurrency has fallen 20% since Aug. 1. With today’s session wrapping up, technical analysis could point to further declines in September.
September has generally been a bad month for Bitcoin since 2017. Over the past five years, Bitcoin’s monthly price decline has averaged 8.5%. However, crypto analysts believe this year is different, as prices drop, fundamentals and on-chain activity increase with adoption.
A market-wide sell-off sent Bitcoin prices up and down below $21,000. The price of Bitcoin has been inactive for a while. There is less demand on the Bitcoin network due to the lower percentage of fees in the total block reward. In the past, BTC has been oversold and bearish if the percentage of fees in the block reward falls below 3%. The negative cycle usually ends once the indicator rises above 3%.
Traders should hold out until the entire block reward exceeds 3% in fees. It will signal rising demand for the network, suggesting that the market is likely to strengthen. Network demand is still small, so a new bull cycle is still some way off. Therefore, investors should watch for a bearish rally to indicate a clear positive trend.
What is the expert opinion?
Crypto analyst Michal van de Poppe believes that Bitcoin’s price of $199,000 could fall further. A $195,000 sweep is expected. Also, he favors a break above $206,000 in a shorter time frame to signal the end of the bullish trend.
#Bitcoin still holds At the low end of $19.9K.
On the lower timeframes, I would prefer a break above $20.6K to end the bullish continuation, otherwise, a $19.5K sweep is possible.
Anything in between, less interested.
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) September 1, 2022
Because most cryptocurrencies are trading below the 20-day SMA, Crypto Birb claims Weak and stagnant. For Bitcoin to succeed, a break above the 200-WMA to $23,000 is necessary.
Was this article helpful?
- Elena R
Elena is an expert in technical analysis and risk management of the cryptocurrency market. She has 10+ years of writing experience – as such, she is an avid journalist with a passion for researching new insights into the crypto age.
