The Bitcoin halving is arguably the most important event for the blockchain due to its function. As such, it has played a significant role in when the crypto bull market starts and how long it lasts in most cases. Although there have been slight deviations in how it triggers each bull market, pre-halving data over the years suggests that it keeps to quite a tight schedule.
Bitcoin Maintaining Historical Trend
While most of the year has seen Bitcoin deviate from many historical trends, leading to speculation that the next bull market won’t follow the established trend, the digital asset’s current pattern suggests that these widespread speculations may be wrong.
In a chart shared on Twitter, pseudonymous crypto analyst @stockmoneyL has presented the argument that Bitcoin could indeed follow the previous bull market trends. The chart shows the number of days between the bottom of the bear market and the next halving event has always maintained a reasonably tight timeline.
Going by the chart, if Bitcoin follows this same timeline, then the bull market will actually begin in 2024. With 532 days between the 2022 bottom and the next halving, it fits in with the average 530 days seen between cycles, after which bull markets have often begun.
Timeline between BTC bottom and halving event match up | Source: Twitter
If this plays out in this instance as well, it would invalidate the expectations of a bull market starting in 2023. It then puts the start of the bull market toward the middle of 2024, similar to other bull markets that have begun following the halving event.
Where Does BTC Land In The Bull Market?
Over the last couple of bull markets, the price of Bitcoin has always surpassed its previous all-time high by a significant margin. For example, during the 2017-2018 bull market, the price of the digital asset clocked an all-time high price of $19,000. And even though it was significant at the time, it was nothing compared to the next ATH.
BTC bulls push toward $29,500 | Source: BTCUSD on inew.news
In 2021, at the height of the last bull market, the price of BTC reached as high as $69,000, more than triple its previous all-time high. This trend has always endured through all bull markets and if there is a repeat, then it is possible that the price of BTC will reach $150,000 in the next bull.
Now, the exact time frame for this has varied depending on who the forecast was coming from. However, looking at Bitcoin’s previous all-time high peaks, they happen around a year after the halving and start of the bull market. So in this case, it would put the new ATH for the digital asset in 2025.