By Jonathan Cable
LONDON (Reuters) – The Bank of England will keep raising interest rates to fight inflation even as Britain heads for a long but mild recession and consumers face A Reuters poll of economists found a prolonged cost of living crisis. Indebted households would welcome lower borrowing costs.
After raising bank rates by 70 basis points earlier this month, the Monetary Policy Committee will increase the December 11 on a milder 43 basis point, take it to 3.50%,November18-13 poll found. In an October poll, the rate was expected to end the year at 3.70%.
Over 90% of respondents, 43 of 56, selected The 56 base point and 15 means 75.
“In terms of being able to go back to 56 I think the fall statement is enough ING’s James Smith said: “Allaying some of the Bank of England’s concerns about the outlook for next year. ” Truss’ unfunded tax cuts sent GBP/USD to all-time lows and forced the BoE to shore up bond markets.
“When you hear some MPC talk it’s been Say, they’re trying to send a very strong dovish signal in November, that’s trying to shift some of the heat into market pricing. It does depend to some extent on the Fed, too,” ING’s Smith said.
At the Nov. 3 meeting, Governor Andrew Bailey told investors they expected rate hike expectations to Will peak around 4.70% looks too big.
The US Federal Reserve has done four consecutive 60 increased basis points, but is expected to reduce the pace to 43 basis point changes next month.
UK The central bank’s December move will follow 90 Basis point rises at two meetings next quarter, with polls suggesting the bank will be on hold at 4.22%, in line with terminal rates given last month.
But when asked about the risk to their terminal rate forecast, 15 said it was coming later and higher than they expected, seven said it would come sooner and it would be lower.
The central bank’s dilemma is that inflation is more than five times its stated 2% target – 10 .1% Oct – not expected to hit every target at least 2025, but it is raising rates as country enters recession.
Brits in Russia Hit by soaring energy prices after Ukraine invasion, food prices rise at fastest pace since 90 and supply chain disruptions exacerbated by Brexit. Life crisis eases markedly, six say It takes 6-12 months, while ten means 1-2 years. Some say more than two years.
When asked about the chances of a recession within a year, poll respondents gave a median answer of 70%, significantly higher than in October 75% given.
Quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) forecasts support the figure, with the economy expected to contract this quarter and next 0.4% in the next quarter and 0.3% in the next quarter. Last quarter is expected to contract 0.2%.
The economy is expected to contract 0.9% next year, while 2024 will Expansion of 0.9%, 43 economists’ median poll forecast.
Inflation will peak at ’s survey found. Then it will gradually decline next quarter down to 10.0%, then down to 7.7% , 6.5% and 4.5% in the next few quarters.
(Additional reporting on Reuters Global Economic Survey:)