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Brazil's central bank says inflation forecasts are aligned “around target”

BRASILIA (Reuters) – Brazil’s central bank said its inflation calculations remained consistent with its policy strategy, but risks remained high and required continued monitoring and calm, according to the minutes of its latest policy meeting released on Tuesday.

In this message, the central bank said it still does not see the mention of monetary easing as reassuring, with interest rates unchanged at cycle highs.

In the minutes of the meeting the meeting was held in October 25- when the interest rate setting called Copom was The committee left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2023 .75 percent, and policymakers said their small increase in inflation reflected higher inflation and higher market prices in the near term. Managed a small increase in price.

“Committee assesses that forecast values ​​remain at values ​​consistent with strategies to achieve target levels within relevant ranges”, which includes 2023 and 2024, Said Central Bank.

But after acknowledging that market inflation forecasts have remained stable for a long time – or worse – policymakers stressed that “risks remain high and require continued monitoring and calm

In last week’s policy decision, the central bank has left its inflation forecast unchanged at 5.8% for this year and raised its inflation forecast for next year to 4.8% from 4.6% last month, And last month was 3.25% target.

For 2024, the inflation forecast was raised to 2.9% from 2.8% the previous month, while the target was 3%.

According to the latest Focus Week survey, private economists expect inflation to be 5.6% this year, 2023 4.9% , while 2023 is 3.5% in 2024.

In the minutes, policymakers also said they were “particularly concerned” with service sector inflation, which depends on inflation inertia and the output gap, and will become stronger over time clear.



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