Sticky Russian oil production requires a cursory rethink. ING’s strategists have already lowered their forecasts.
Oil prices will remain high
“Russian oil production stubbornly and weaker-than-expected growth in demand mean the oil market could be in for the rest of the year Time and early next year to maintain excess, which should limit the upside for oil prices.”
“Limited OPEC spare capacity and uncertainty over how Russian capital flows will evolve once the EU ban takes full effect The volatility should also limit the medium-term downside.”
“We have revised our Q322 and Q422 Brent crude oil forecasts from $118/bbl and $125/bbl to $100/bbl and $125/bbl, respectively. $97/bbl. Our full-year 2023 Brent forecast has been revised down from $99/bbl to $97/bbl.”
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