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Central Bank of Russia: Balance of short-term inflation risks

MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia’s central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina said on Thursday that inflation and disinflation risks in Russia are balanced in the near term, signaling that the central bank is unlikely to change its key interest rate next month. Signal.

Russia’s central bank held its key interest rate at 7.5% last month, warning that expectations for higher prices had grown and that Russia’s partial mobilization of military action in Ukraine could spark long-term inflation as the workforce shrinks.

Immediately after Moscow sent its armed forces to Ukraine in February 24, the central bank raised its key interest rate to % from 9.5% to mitigate risks to financial stability. Since then, it has cut rates six times.

When asked what decision the central bank might make on interest rate levels next month, Nabiulina told reporters that in the short term, pro- and anti-inflation risks are balanced.

“We are in neutral monetary policy territory and our forecasts assume rates can stay the same, rise or fall 2023,” she added.

Partial mobilization plan announced by Moscow in September ended in October due to weak consumer demand, with possible deflationary and inflationary effects and supply-side constraints, the central bank said .

According to the Federal Statistical Office of Rosstat, the consumer price index in Russia rose by 0.01% in the week ended November 7, from 0 fell. 07 Recorded a percentage increase a week ago, a trend some analysts said reflects weak consumer demand.



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