Trust is a major factor in fantasy football, not a problem that can be fixed once and for all. Players earn our trust primarily through what they do on the field and what their coaches say about them – nothing destroys trust training like injuries. If a player is off the field injured or injured in practice, and he’s on the team’s injury report, it’s natural for fantasy players to wonder: Can I trust him?
We’re not doctors, we’re certainly not aware of the full story. In the years we’ve played the game, we’ve seen every possible outcome and every possible injury. A man who was injured by a months-long saga instead missed just one week before returning to play at an elite level. Another appeared to have suffered minor injuries, but never recovered to his pre-injury form. Others are weeks of game-time decisions before finally being placed in IR.
The big question is, how do you know when you can trust a player coming back from injury? Of course, the truth is that there is no magic formulaic answer . Out of frustration, I once did a study of players’ first games after returning from injury in the NBA. In basketball, I’ve found that if a player is deemed ready to start, he’s performing at nearly the same level as he was before the injury (this is especially true for point guards and power forwards). However, football is a very different sport, and we know the NFL doesn’t have to be.
And no one is obligated to tell us anything about it.
Based on only some important information sucks! My personal rule of thumb is to avoid groin and hamstring injuries when players appear to be rushed back (missing zero or one week). These are prone to re-injury during games, and it’s not uncommon for a skilled player with one of these injuries to play more of a decoy role than a primary playmaker.
With everything else, including fractures, concussions, and sprains, I’d rather miss by trusting too much than play too cautiously and leave a ton of fantasy points on my bench . In other words, when they said Josh Allen
was ready to go, he was ready to go for me. Let’s talk about what he and a few others did in Week 10, focusing on what that means from an injury standpoint.
Josh Allen
What a game! Allen is starting to look terrific. What elbow injury, we ask? He rushed to the first error, his pass was spot on and the team succeeded in a balanced game plan. In the second half, however, things started to unravel.
He made two costly and frankly unnecessary interceptions and fumbled a transfer in the end zone. Although he finished with a nice fantasy line (330 passing yards, 84 rushing yards and a passing touchdown), I wondered if the elbow wasn’t as good as it looked as the game progressed. While it looked like he made smart choices and didn’t put himself in unnecessary danger in the first half, he was mentally in full takeover mode in the second half — as he put his team and game plan at his fingertips. time. The Vikings were able to read him well, but his performance was not perfect, possibly the result of some injury-related fatigue.
In my opinion, there are some questions about whether heshould be allowed to play, or whether Bills should use a more frequent game plan, especially It was in the second half, but no one is going to feel stupid starting him in fantasy.
James Conner
Conner There was no rush to return from a rib injury that took him three full weeks to heal before taking a limited role in Week 9. With Kyler Murray
out and the ribs apparently fully behind him, Conner rushed a season-high 21 times for 69 yards and two touchdowns. He also caught all three passes thrown to him by Colt McCoy
. The game marked his first goal since Week 1 and his best fantasy performance of the season. Conner is still behind draft day expectations, but the fact that Eno Benjamin didn’t even touch the ball (and was subsequently released) is encouraging Conner’s managers moving forward step forward.
Jonathan Taylor
Tried Predicting the Colts for this season is giving me a headache. Taylor got off to a solid start in Week 1, his last score before a bounce-back performance in Week 10 (147 rushing yards, 16 receiving yards, and a touchdown), but has repeatedly made it worse since Week 2. People down (when he plays) -9. Whether it’s low usage — like he had nine assists in a loss to the Jaguars — or inefficiency — like his 20 assists in a win over Kansas City — he’s been on the mend with toe and ankle injuries. The situation showed a series of lackluster fantasy performances.
I think at this point it’s safe to say Taylor wasn’t at 100% until last week, but it’s safe to say also Can’t believe even 100% that the Colts are going to use him the way we want for fantasy purposes. He’s a must-starter, but not a guaranteed fantasy bonanza.
Aaron Jones
Up I wasn’t that worried about Jones’ ankle after he took the time to go through the injury report, but this game scares me. Dallas has one of the best defenses in the NFL, and we all know Green Bay has struggled (to put it mildly).
So of course Jones came out and rushed for a season high 24 times for 138 yards and a touchdown.
He also caught two passes from Aaron Rodgers
who also had his best game of the season game season. AJ Dillon was also involved in 13 carries, and both backs were very efficient with over 5.0 yards per carry. I doubt the Packers have figured it all out, but Jones getting this game under such difficult circumstances is certainly a step in the right direction.
Christian Watson
While Jones certainly played a big part in the Packers’ success in Dallas, the glory belongs to the man (four catches, three touchdowns and 107 yards). Watson has been hampered this season by concussions and various other injuries, but one of the only joys Rodgers seems to find in the game this season is throwing the ball to him. There’s been a lot of missed connections between the two, and it’s nice to see them on the same page with a win over Dallas.
I don’t doubt that Watson has the speed and hands to be a very successful NFL receiver, but rebuilding trust in Rodgers will be hard to do.
Kadarius Toney
You Know how doctors used to prescribe country air or warm temperatures to treat just about anything that made someone sick? That’s what I thought of when I watched Tony go from the saddest, most talented but always hurt man in New York suddenly to a healthy image of the Midwest. Playing with Patrick Mahomes
is an infusion into Toney’s prospects.
Up I wasn’t that worried about Jones’ ankle after he took the time to go through the injury report, but this game scares me. Dallas has one of the best defenses in the NFL, and we all know Green Bay has struggled (to put it mildly).
So of course Jones came out and rushed for a season high 24 times for 138 yards and a touchdown.
He also caught two passes from Aaron Rodgers
who also had his best game of the season game season. AJ Dillon was also involved in 13 carries, and both backs were very efficient with over 5.0 yards per carry. I doubt the Packers have figured it all out, but Jones getting this game under such difficult circumstances is certainly a step in the right direction.
Christian Watson
There are still plenty of weapons in Kansas City’s offense, but Tony went from two targets to five in just one week, and Mahomes trusts him to finish his runs inside the 10-yard line First NFL touchdown. If Juju Smith-Schuster
and Mecole Hardman miss Week 11 due to respective injuries (concussion and abdomen), Toney will probably play against the Chargers on Sunday Night Football.
Quick Hits
Justin Fields/Cole Kermet
Yes Yes.
I admit to dropping these two after their many summer romances, I think they’d be a dynamic duo in Chicago. That was around Week 3 or 4, when Fields’ volume was in the toilet and his accuracy hovered below the 50 percent completion rate. Sometimes, we get too flexible in our thinking about player value, as Fields threw more than 20 passes in his first game in Week 5 and has thrown at least one touchdown in the six games since. He also now has at least one touchdown in his past four games.
Kmet has all the attributes of a Kelce-style tight end, but he didn’t catch his first pass until Week 3. He never had more than 4 targets until Week 9. He’s still not shooting very well, but after a few games where he’s shooting 100 percent, they’re going to have to add a little bit, right? Can Kmet score two touchdowns per game the rest of the season? Do not. But with Fields playing like a top-five fantasy QB, they’re all must-haves in every format.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
NWI Top Performer Titans WR Game of the Year 15 fantasy points in Week 10. I don’t know why, or how, I wouldn’t invest a lot of effort in figuring out this fluke behavior. Congratulations to Nick on his 5/119/2 line, but Derek Henry
is the only bootable Titan in any reasonable fantasy league.
Devin Singletary
The Beals’ first two touchdowns in Sunday’s loss to Minnesota got Singletary’s managers in high spirits. Singletary didn’t score on the field all season and had just one touchdown reception in Week 3 against Miami. Maybe this is some belated return of TD, but fantasy managers shouldn’t get overly excited.
Despite his early success, he still has only 13 carries (James Cook has five) and has only been Aimed twice. The key to starting Singletary has a lot to do with how competitive the game is — he’s done well in close games this season.
