Sunday, February 5, 2023
HomeentertainmentMovie NewsFeinberg Forecast: Scott’s Final Projections for the 95th Oscar Nominations

Feinberg Forecast: Scott’s Final Projections for the 95th Oscar Nominations

PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter’s executive editor of awards, Scott Feinberg, reflects Feinberg’s best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and industry insiders, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars ceremony itself.

*BEST PICTURE*

Projected Nominees
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24, March 25, trailer)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount, May 27, trailer) — podcast (Jerry Bruckheimer)
3. Elvis (Warner Bros., June 24, trailer)
4. Tár (Focus, October 7, trailer)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight, October 21, trailer)
6. The Fabelmans (Universal, November 11, trailer) — podcast (Steven Spielberg)
7. Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century/Disney, December 16, trailer)
8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Disney, November 11, trailer) — podcast (Kevin Feige)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix, October 28, trailer)
10. Triangle of Sadness (Neon, October 7, trailer)

Alternate
RRR
(Variance) — podcast (S. S. Rajamouli)

Potential Surprise
Living (Sony Classics)

Shoulda Been a Contender
Close
(A24)

*BEST DIRECTOR*

Projected Nominees
1. Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) — podcast
2. Baz Luhrmann (Elvis)
3. Todd Field (Tár)
4. Daniel Scheinert & Daniel Kwan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
5. Joseph Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick)

Alternate
Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front)

Potential Surprise
S. S. Rajamouli (RRR) — podcast

Shoulda Been a Contender
Damien Chazelle (Babylon) — podcast

*BEST ACTOR*

Projected Nominees
1. Austin Butler (Elvis)
2. Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
3. Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
4. Bill Nighy (Living)
5. Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick)

Alternate
Paul Mescal (Aftersun)

Potential Surprise
Gabriel LaBelle (The Fabelmans)

Shoulda Been a Contender
Jonathan Majors (Devotion)

*BEST ACTRESS*

Projected Nominees
1. Cate Blanchett (Tár) — podcast
2. Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once) — podcast
3. Danielle Deadwyler (Till)
4. Olivia Colman (Empire of Light) — podcast
5. Ana de Armas (Blonde)

Alternate
Viola Davis (The Woman King)

Potential Surprise
Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie)

Shoulda Been a Contender
Margot Robbie (Babylon) — podcast

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*

Projected Nominees
1. Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
2. Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
3. Paul Dano (The Fabelmans)
4. Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
5. Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)

Alternate
Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse) — podcast

Potential Surprise
Tom Hanks (Elvis) — podcast 1 and 2

Shoulda Been a Contender
Brad Pitt (Babylon)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS*

Projected Nominees
1. Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
2. Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
3. Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
4. Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once) — podcast
5. Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans) — podcast

Alternate
Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness)

Potential Surprise
Hong Chau (The Whale)

Shoulda Been a Contender
Frankie Corio (Aftersun)

*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*

Projected Nominees
1. Women Talking (Sarah Polley)
2. All Quiet on the Western Front (Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell)
3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Rian Johnson)
4. Living (Kazuo Ishiguro)
5. The Whale (Samuel D. Hunter)

Alternate
White Noise
(Noah Baumbach)

Potential Surprise
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
(Guillermo del Toro, Patrick McHale & Matthew Robbins) — podcast 1 and 2 (del Toro)

Shoulda Been a Contender
Lady Chatterley’s Lover (David Magee)

*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY*

Projected Nominees
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert)
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (Martin McDonagh)
3. Tár (Todd Field)
4. The Fabelmans (Tony Kushner & Steven Spielberg) — podcast (Spielberg)
5. Triangle of Sadness (Ruben Östlund)

Alternate
Elvis
(Jeremy Doner, Baz Luhrmann, Sam Bromell & Craig Pearce)

Potential Surprise
Nope
(Jordan Peele) — podcast

Shoulda Been a Contender
Aftersun
(Charlotte Wells)

*BEST ANIMATED FEATURE*

Projected Nominees
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix) — podcast 1 and 2 (del Toro)
2. Turning Red (Pixar)
3. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Dreamworks)
4. Marcel the Shell With Shoes On (A24)
5. Wendell & Wild (Netflix)

Alternate
Inu-Oh (GKIDS)

Potential Surprise
Strange World (Disney)

Shoulda Been a Contender
Eternal Spring (ARTE)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE*

Projected Nominees
1. All That Breathes (HBO)
2. Retrograde (Nat Geo)
3. Fire of Love (Nat Geo/Neon)
4. Last Flight Home (MTV)
5. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (Neon)

Alternate
Navalny (Warner Bros./CNN)

Potential Surprise
Bad Axe (IFC)

Shoulda Been a Contender
Good Night Oppy (Amazon)

*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE*

Projected Nominees
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
2. EO (Poland)
3. Close (Belgium)
4. Decision to Leave (South Korea)
5. The Quiet Girl (Ireland)

Alternate
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)

Potential Surprise
Saint Omer (France)

Shoulda Been a Contender
RRR (India)

*BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY*

Projected Nominees
1. Top Gun: Maverick (Claudio Miranda)
2. Elvis (Mandy Walker)
3. Avatar: The Way of Water (Russell Carpenter)
4. Babylon (Linus Sandgren)
5. Empire of Light (Roger Deakins)

Alternate
The Fabelmans (Janusz Kaminski)

Potential Surprise
The Batman (Greig Fraser)

Shoulda Been a Contender
Emancipation (Robert Richardson)

*BEST COSTUME DESIGN*

Projected Nominees
1. Elvis (Catherine Martin)
2. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Ruth E. Carter)
3. Living (Sandy Powell) — podcast
4. Babylon (Mary Zophres)
5. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (Jenny Beavan)

Alternate
The Woman King (Gersha Phillips)

Potential Surprise
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Shirley Kurata)

Shoulda Been a Contender
Don’t Worry Darling (Arianne Phillips)

*BEST FILM EDITING*

Projected Nominees
1. Top Gun: Maverick (Eddie Hamilton)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (David Brenner, James Cameron, John Refoua & Stephen E. Rivkin)
3. Elvis (Jonathan Redmond & Matt Villa)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Paul Rogers)
5. The Fabelmans (Sarah Broshar & Michael Kahn)

Alternate
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Kelley Dixon, Jennifer Lame & Michael P. Shawver)

Potential Surprise
All Quiet on the Western Front (Sven Budelmann)

Shoulda Been a Contender
Babylon (Tom Cross)

*BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING*

Projected Nominees
1. Elvis
2. The Whale
3. The Batman
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
5. All Quiet on the Western Front

Alternate
Blonde

Potential Surprise
Crimes of the Future

Shoulda Been a Contender
Everything Everywhere All at Once

*BEST ORIGINAL SCORE*

Projected Nominees
1. The Fabelmans (John Williams)
2. Babylon (Justin Hurwitz)
3. Avatar: The Way of Water (Simon Franglen)
4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Alexandre Desplat)
5. Women Talking (Hildur Guðnadóttir)

Alternate
All Quiet on the Western Front (Volker Bertelmann)

Potential Surprise
She Said (Nicholas Britell)

Shoulda Been a Contender
The Batman (Michael Giacchino)

*BEST ORIGINAL SONG*

Projected Nominees
1. “Naatu Naatu” (RRR) — Chandrabose & M. M. Keeravani
2. “Lift Me Up” (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) — Ryan Coogler, Ludwig Göransson, Rihanna & Tems
3. “Hold My Hand” (Top Gun: Maverick) — Lady Gaga & Michael ‘BloodPop’ Tucker — podcast 1 and 2 (Gaga)
4. “New Body Rhumba” (White Noise) — James Murphy
5. “My Mind and Me” (Selena Gomez: My Mind and Me) — Amy Allen, Jonathan Bellion, Selena Gomez, Jordan K. Johnson, Stefan Johnson & Michael Pollack — podcast (Gomez)

Alternate
“Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” (Avatar: The Way of Water) — Simon Franglen, Swedish House Mafia & Abel ‘The Weeknd’ Tesfaye

Potential Surprise
“Good Afternoon” (Spirited) — Benj Pasek, Khiyon Hursey, Sukari Jones, Justin Paul & Mark Sonnenblick

Shoulda Been a Contender
“Nobody Like U” (Turning Red) — Billie Eilish & Finneas — podcast

*BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN*

Projected Nominees
1. Elvis
2. Babylon
3. Avatar: The Way of Water
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once

Alternate
All Quiet on the Western Front

Potential Surprise
The Fabelmans

Shoulda Been a Contender
Thirteen Lives

*BEST SOUND*

Projected Nominees
1. Elvis
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. Avatar: The Way of Water
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
5. All Quiet on the Western Front

Alternate
Everything Everywhere All at Once

Potential Surprise
Moonage Daydream

Shoulda Been a Contender
Tár

*BEST VISUAL EFFECTS*

Projected Nominees
1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
3. Top Gun: Maverick
4. The Batman
5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

Alternate
All Quiet on the Western Front

Potential Surprise
Jurassic World Dominion

Shoulda Been a Contender
RRR

*BEST ANIMATED SHORT*

Projected Nominees
1. The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
2. An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It
3. New Moon
4. More Than I Want to Remember
5. It’s Nice in Here

Alternate
The Garbage Man

Potential Surprise
The Flying Sailor

Shoulda Been a Contender
The Debutante

*BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT*

Projected Nominees
1. 38 at the Garden — podcast (Travon Free)
2. Stranger at the Gate
3. The Flagmakers
4. Nuisance Bear
5. The Martha Mitchell Effect

Alternate
The Elephant Whisperers

Potential Surprise
How Do You Measure a Year?

Shoulda Been a Contender
Anastasia

*BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT*

Projected Nominees
1. The Red Suitcase
2. An Irish Goodbye
3. Almost Home
4. The Lone Wolf
5. All in Favor

Alternate
The Treatment

Potential Surprise
Warsha

Shoulda Been a Contender
Night Ride

RELATED ARTICLES

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here

LAST NEWS

Featured NEWS