Please note: This forecast is compiled by Executive Editor at The Hollywood Reporter awards, Scott Feinberg, for his best attempt at predicting the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his Personal preferences. He arrives at these rankings through consultations with voters and industry insiders, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, show results leading up to the Oscars, and the history of the Oscars themselves. It will be updated regularly to reflect new developments.
*BEST FILM*
Frontrunner
Top gun: Maverick (Paramount) – Podcast
(Jerry Bruckheimer)The Fabelmans(General)— Podcast (Steven Spielberg) all at the same time (a 10)
Banshee of Inisherin(Searchlight)
Elvis(Warner Bros. )
Tár( (Focus)
Avatar: The Way of Water (th Century/Disney)Glass Onion: A Knife Out of Mystery(Netflix)Black Panther: Wakanda Forever(Disney)— podcast (Kevin Feig)
RRR (variance)
Major Threat
Babylon(Paramount)All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) Sad Triangle (Neon)
Whale (A)
Woman talking ( UAR)
Possibility
Queen(Sony)
she said(generic)
Life(Sony Classic)after sun (A)
until (UAR) — Podcast
(Barbara Broccoli)
*Best Director*
frontrunner
Steven Spielberg(The Fabelmans) — Podcast
Trust De Field (Tár)
Martin McDougall Na(The Banshee of Inisherin)
James Card Mellon (Avatar: Way of Water)
Daniel Scheinert and Daniel Kwan (Everything Everywhere All Once)
Main Threat
Baz Luhrmann( Elvis)
Edward Berger( All Quiet on the Western Front )
Joseph Kosinski ( Top Gun: Maverick )
Sarah Polley ( Women Talking)
SS Rajamouli (RRR)
Damien Chazelle (Babylon ) – podcast
PossibilityRuben Östlund (The Triangle of Sadness)
Gina Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King)
Ryan Coogler (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Ron Howard ( Thirteen Lives ) – podcast
Darren Aronofsky(Whale)
Charlotte Wells(Aftersun)
*best actor*
lead By
Austin Butler Elvis )
Brendan Fraser (Whale)
Colin Farrell (The Banshees Inisherin)
Bil l Nye(Living)
Tom Cruise(Top Gun:Terry Alone )
Major Threat
Adam Sandler(hustle) – podcast Paul Mescal (Aftersun)
Gabriel LaBelle (The Fabelmans)
Ralph Fiennes (menu) Jeremy Pope (The Inspection)
Tom Hanks ( a man named Otto ) — Podcast 1 and 2
Possibility
Daniel Kaluuya (Nope)
Diego Calva(Babylon)
Hugh Jackman ( son of ) — Podcast
Felix Camerer (All Quiet on the Western Front)
Will Smith( Liberation )— Podcast
Song Kanghao(Broker)
*Best Actress*
frontrunner
Michelle Yeoh ( EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ) — Podcast
Cate Blanchett(Tár( ) — Podcast
Danielle Deadwell(Till)
Michelle Williams(The Fabelmans)
Ana de Armas ( Blonde )
Primary Threat
Olivia Colman (Empire of Light)
Viola Davis (Queen)
Margot Robbie(Babylon) — podcast Emma Thompson (good luck Leo Grande) — Podcast Vicky Krieps ( Corsage )
Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie )
Possibility
Rooney Mara(Woman Speaks)
Jennifer Lawrence(causeway) — podcast
Anja Taylor-Joy(menu ) — podcast
Zoe Kazan ( she said )
Letitia Wright (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Jessica Chastain ( Good Nurse ) — Podcast
*Best Supporting Actor
Leader
Ke Huy Quan (everything at the same time )
Brendan Gleeson (The Banshee of Inisherin)
Paul Dano(Fabelmanns )Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin )
Judd Hirsch(The Fabelmans)
Primary Threat
Eddie Redmayne( Good Nurse) — podcast
Brad Pitt(Babylon)
Tom Hanks(Elvis ) — Podcast 1 and 2
Possibility
Ben guard Xiao(Woman speaks)
Brian Terry Henry(Causeway)
Michael Ward(Empire of Light)
*Best Supporting Actress*
Frontrunner
Angela Bassett(Black Panther: Forever Wakanda)Jamie Lee Curtis( Everything Everywhere All On Once)
Stephanie Hsu ( ) – podcastDolly De Leon(The Sad Triangle)
Kerry Condon (The Banshees Inisherin )
Primary Threat
Hongzhou(Whale)
Janelle Monáe (Glass Onion: Mystery of the Wild ) — podcast
Nina Hoss(Tár)
carat ire Foy (Women Talking) — podcast Jesse Buckley ( WOMAN Speaks )
Possibility
Gabrielle Union (The Inspection)
Carey Mulligan (She Said) – podcast
Keke Palmer (not )Jean Smart (Babylon)
Lashana Lynch (The Woman King)
*Best Adapted Screenplay*
Front Runner
WOMEN SPEAKING (Sarah Polly)
The Glass Onion: The Mystery of the Knife ( Rian Johnson)
All Quiet on the Western Front (Edward Berger, Leslie Patterson and Ian Stocker) Life (Kazuo Ishiguro)White Noise (Noah Baumbach)
Professional Threat
Whale(Samuel D. Hunter)
she said (Rebecca Lenkiewicz)
Lady Chatterley’s Lover (David Magee)
Good Nurse(Kristy Wilson-Cairns)
possibility Top Gun: Maverick (Peter Craig, Ellen Kruger, Justin Marks, Christopher McQuarrie & Eric Warren Singer)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever(Joe Robert Cole & Ryan Coogler) Avatar: Way of Water (James Cameron, Rick Jaffa & Amanda Silver )
*Best Original Screenplay*
Frontrunner
Everything at the same time (Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert)The Banshee of Inisherin (Martin McDonagh)
The Fabelmans(Tony Kushner & Steven Spielberg) — Podcast (Spielberg)Tal (Todd Field)
Triangle of Sadness (Ruben Östlund)
Main Threat
Elvis (Jeremy Doner, Baz Luhrmann, Sam Bromell & Craig Pearce)
Babylon (Damien Chazelle) — Podcast
The Woman King (Dana Stevens)
NO(Jordan Peele)—podcast
RRR (SS Rajamouli)
Possibility
Till(Keith Beauchamp, Chinonye Chukwu and Michael Reilly)
After Sun(Charlotte Wells)END OF THE WORLD (James Gray)-podcast
Close (Lukas Dhont & Angelo Tijssens)
CHECK (Elegance Bratton)
*Best International Feature Film
FrontrunnerQuiet on the Western Front(Germany) ARGENTINA, (Argentina)EO (Poland)
Quiet Girl(Ireland)
Close (Belgium)
Main threat decided to leave ( South Korea)
Holy Spider(Denmark)
Saint-Omer(France)corsage(Austria)
Bardo(Mexico)— Podcast (Alejandro González Iñárritu)
Possibility
LAST FILM EXHIBITION(PRINTEDDegree)
Cairo Conspiracy(Sweden)Blue caftan (Morocco)
Happy Paradise(Pakistan)
Return to Seoul (Cambodia)
*Best Documentary Feature*
FrontrunnerBreathe everything (HBO)
Navalny (Warner Bros. /CNN)
Retrograde (National Geographic)
LAST FLIGHT HOME (MTV) BAD AX (IFC)
Primary Threat All Beauty and Bleeding(Neon)Fire of Love(National Geographic/Neon)Territory (National Geographic)
Descendants (Netflix)
Moon daydream (neon sign)
possibility
Jane Family (HBO)
Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, Part 1 trip Cheng, a song (Sony Classics)
Hide Letters from (cargo)
Mistchild(movie campaign) A House Made of Splinters(still seeking US release)
*Best Animated Feature*
Frontrunner
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix)Marcel the Shell With Shoes On (A)
turns red(Pixar)
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (DreamWorks) Wendell & Wilder(Netflix)
main competitorInu-Oh (GKIDS)
Odd World (Disney)
Apo Luo 1/ 2 (Netflix)
Bob’s Burger Movie (Century)
Bastards(General)
possibleities Minions: Rise of Gru (Universal/Illumination)Eternal Spring (ARTE)
Luck (Apple/Skydance)
My Father’s Dragon (Netflix)Sea Beast(Netflix)
*Best Cinematography*
Frontrunner
Top Gun: Maverick ( Claudio Miranda)
Elvis Presley (Mandy Walker)
Babylon (Linus Sandgren)
Avatar: Way of Water(Russell Carpenter ) Faberman (Janusz Kaminski)
Primary Threat
Empire of Light(Roger Deakins)
Batman (Gr eig Fraser)
Bardo (Darius Khondji)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Autumn Durald Arkapaw)
Quiet on the Western Front (James Friend)
Tár (Florian Hoffmeister)
LIBERATE (Robert Richardson)
possibility Banshee of Inisherin (Ben Davis)
all Everything happened at the same time (Larkin Seiple)
RRR (KK Senthil Kumar)Queen (Polly Morgan)Don’t worry honey (Matty Libatique)
Women Talking (Luc Montpellier )
NO (Hoyte van Hoytema)
*Best Costume Design*
Front Runner
Elvis Presley (Katherine Martin)
Babylon (Mary Zophres)Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Ruth E. Carter) Mrs. Harris goes to Paris (Jenny Beavan) to live (Sandy Powell)
Major Threat
Fabermann family( Mark Bridges)
Queen (Gersha Phillips )Avatar: The Way of Water(Debo La Lynn Scott)
The Glass Onion: Knives Out of the Sheath (Jenny Eagan)
Empire of Light (Alexandra Byrne)
until ( Marci Rodgers)
all at the same time (Shirley Kurata)
White Noise (Ann Roth)
Don’t worry dear (Arianne Phillips)
PossibilityThe Banshee of Inisherin (Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh)
Batman (Jacqueline Durran)Blonde(Jennifer Johnson)Tár (Bina Daigeler)
Corsage (Monika Buttinger)
Woman Talking (Quita Alfred)
My Cop (Anne Simmons) Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Diane Dwyer, Laura Kerrigan & Annika Schindler)
Doomsday Time ) (Madeline Weeks)
*Best Movie Clip*
Frontrunner Top Gun: Maverick (Eddie Hamilton) Elvis(Jonathan Redmond & Matt Villa)
“Avatar: Way of Water” (David Brenner, James Cameron, John Refoa and Stephen E. Rifkin)everywhere ere All at Once (Paul Rogers)
The Fabelmans (Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn)
Major Threat
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever(Kelley Dixon, Jennifer Lame and Michael P. Shawver)
Babylon (Tom Cross)
Glass Onion: Barren Wild Mystery (Bob Ducsay)
Inisherin’s Daughter Demon (Mikkel EG Nielsen)
All Quiet on the Western Front (Sven Budelmann)
Tár( (Monika Willi)
Sad Triangle (Mikel Cee Karlsson & Ruben Östlund)
Possibility
RRR (A. Sreekar Prasad)
Thirteen Lives (James D. Wilcox )
Batman (William Hoy & Tyler Nelson)
Queen (Terilyn A. Shropshire)
WOMAN Speaks (Christopher Donaldson & Roslyn Kalloo)
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Holly Klein & Ken Schretzmann)
she said (Hansjörg Weißbrich)
*BEST MAKEUP AND HAIR*
Frontrunner Elvis Presley
Whale
Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Quiet on the Western Front
Primary Threat CRIME OF FUTUREBlonde
Babylon
Possibilityliberation
AMSTERDAM
*Best Original Score*
Frontrunner
Babylon (Justin Hurwitz)
The Fabelmans (John Williams) woman talking (Hildur Guðnadóttir) Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Alexander Desplat) Avatar: Way of Water (Simon Franglen)
Primary Threat Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Ludwig Göransson)
The Queen (Terence Blanchard)Quiet on the Western Front (Volker Bertelmann) she said (Nicholas Britell) Banshee of Inisherin (Carter Burwell)
Possibility all at the same time (Son Lux)
The Glass Onion: Knives Out of the Sheath (Nathan Johnson)Dedication (Chanda Dancy)
Don’t worry dear (John Powell) NO (Michael Abels)
*BEST ORIGINAL SONG*
Frontrunner“Naatu Naatu”(RRR) — MM Keeravani and Chandrabose
“Help me up”( Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) — Ryan Coogler, Ludwig Göransson, Rihanna and Tems
“Hold My Hand” (Top Gun: Maverick) — Lady Gaga and Michael ‘BloodPop ‘ Tucker — Podcast 1 and2 (Gaga)
“New Body Rhumba” (White Noise) — James Murphy
“Stand Up” (Till) — Durnst ‘D’Mile’ Emile II and Jazmine Sullivan
Major Threat
“Ciao Papa” (Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio) — Guillermo del Toro and Roeban Katz — Podcast (del Toro)
“Carolina” ( Crawdads Sing) — Taylor Swift
“Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” ( Avatar: Way of Water) – Sim on Franglen, the Swedish Mafia and Abel ‘The Weeknd’ Tesfaye
“This Is Life” ( all at the same time ) – David Byrne, Ryan Lotter & Mitsky – Podcast (Bourne)
“Applause” ( Tell Like a Woman ) – Diane Warren – podcast
Possibility
“My Mind and Me” ( Selena Gomez: My Mind and Me ) – Amy Allen, Jonathan Bellion, Selena Gomez, Jordan K. Johnson, Stefan Johnson & Michael Pollack – 1000587045067po dcast
(Gomez)
“Good Afternoon”(Spirited) — Benj Pasek, Khiyon Hursey, Sukari Jones, Justin Paul, and Mark Sonnenblick ” Time “(Amsterdam) — Aubrey ‘Drake’ Graham, Giveon Evans, Daniel Pemberton and Jahaan Akil Sweet
“Dust and Ash” (Sounds of Dust and Ash ) — J. Ralph — 1000587045067podcast
“Til You Come Home”(A Man Called Otto) — David Hodges & Rita Wilson
*Best Production Design*
Frontrunner
Elvis
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Incarnation: Way of Water
Glass Onion: A Knife Onion Mystery
Significant Threat
everything at the same time
The FabelmansQuiet on the Western Front
Batman
Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
Thirteen Lives Queen
RRR
Triangle of Sadness
Possibility
bardo
Don’t worry dear
woman talk
until
Banshee of Inisherin
Don’t worry dearEmpire of LightLife Tár (
*BEST SOUND EFFECTS*
leader
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick Avatar: The Way of Water
Black Panther: Wakanda ForeverQuiet on the Western Front
Major Threat
BabylonBatman
Moon Daydream
Possibilityeverything at the same time
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
*Best Visual Effects*
Frontrunner Avatar: Water The Way
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Batman
Top Gun: Maverick
Primary Threat
Silence in the west
Jurassic World Domination
Fantastic Beasts: Dumbledore’s Secret
possibility
Thirteen Lives No
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