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Feinberg Predictions: The Oscar Landscape After Nominations

Please note: This forecast is compiled by Executive Editor at The Hollywood Reporter awards Scott Feinberg, reflecting his best attempt at predicting the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these rankings through consultations with voters and industry insiders, analysis of marketing and awards events, and Oscars results

And the history of the Academy Awards itself. It will be updated regularly to reflect new developments.

*Best Movie*

Frontrunner all at the same time (a ) The Fabelmans(General)— Podcast (Steven Spielberg) Avatar: Way of Water (th Century/Disney) Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount)—Podcast(Jerry Brook Highmore) Banshee of Inisherin( Searchlight) Elvis(Warner Bros. )Glass Onion: Mystery of the Wild ( Netflix)

Tár(​​ (Focus) Babylon(Paramount)Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)

Primary Threat woman talking ( UAR)Queen(Sony)The Triangle of Sadness(Neon)

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever(Disney)— Podcast (Kevin Feig)RRR (variance) she said (generic)

until (UAR) — Podcast ( Barbara Broccoli)Thirteen Lives(Amazon)— Podcast(Ron Howard) LIFE(SONY CLASSIC)
A Man Called Otto(Sony)— Podcast 1 and 2(Tom Hanks) Whale (A )NO(GM)— podcast (Jordan Peele)

*Best Director*

leader Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) — PodcastJames Cameron(Avatar: The Way of Water)Daniel Scheinert & Daniel Kwan ( EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE )
Damien Chazelle (Babylon) – Podcast

Buzz L uhrmann (Elvis)

Primary Threat Sarah Polley(Woman Speaks)

Martin McDonagh ( of The Banshees Inisherin) Edward Berger (All Quiet on the West Front)Gina Prince-Bythewood (Queen Queen)SS Rajamouli (RRR)
Todd Field(Tár)Ruben Östlund (Sad Triangle)

Possibility Ron Howard (Thirteen Lives) — podcast
Park Chan Wook ( decision to leave )
Chinonye Chukwu (Till)Joseph Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick )
Ryan Coogler (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)Rian Johnson (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery)

*BEST Actor*


Brendan Fraser(Whale)Austin Butler( Elvis)Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)Bill Nighy (Living ) Tom Cruise( Ambitious Ling Yun: Maverick )

Main threat

Tom Hanks(A Man Called Otto ) — Podcast 1 and 2 Paul May Scale ( after the sun ) Lal Husband Fiennes (menu) Adam Sandler (Hustle ) — Podcast Diego Calva ( Babylon )


Hugh Jackman(son)- podcast
Gabriel Labelle(The Fabelmans)
Jeremy Pope (check)Will Smith(liberate)—podcast
Song Kang Ho (Manager )

*Best Actress*

Cate Blanchett (Tár) — podcast
Michelle Yeoh(Everything Everywhere All once ) – podcast
Michelle Williams(The Fabelmans)
Danielle Deadwyler (Till )
Olivia Colman(Empire of Light)

Primary threatViola Davis(The Woman King )

Margot Robbie(Babylon) — podcast
Ana de Armas ( blonde ) Vicky Krieps (Boutonniere) Emma Thompson ( Good Luck, Rio Grande ) — podcast
Rooney Mara(woman talking)

Possibility Jennifer Lawrence ( Causeway Bay ) — podcast
Anya Taylor-Joy (menu) – podcast
Zoe Kazan(she said)

Jessica Chastain ( Good Nurse ) — podcast
Emma Collin(Lady Chatterley’s Lover) Lesley Manville ( Mrs. Harris goes to Paris )

*Best Supporting Actor*

Ke Huy Quan (everything at the same time)
Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Brad Pitt(Babylon)
Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans) Paul Dano ( Fabermans )

Primary ThreatEddie Redmayne(Good Nurse) — podcast
Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)Tom Hanks( Elvis Presley) — Podcast 1 and 2

Brian Terry Henry(Causeway)


Jeremy Strong (Armageddon Time) – podcast Ben Whishaw (Women Talking)Micheal Ward ( Empire of Light)Anthony Hopkins(Armageddon Time) – podcast

*Best Supporting Actress*

Angela Bassett ( Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ) Dolly de Leon (The Triangle of Sadness)Jamie Lee Curtis (everything at the same time)

Stephanie Hsu (everything at the same time)
Janelle Monáe (Glass Onion: Mystery of the Wild ) — podcast

Primary threatHongzhou(Whale)Kerry Condon(The Banshee of Inisherin) Claire Foy ( WOMEN Speak ) — podcast
Jesse Buckley ( WOMAN Speaks ) Keke Palmer (not)

Possibility Carey Mulligan (She Said) — podcast
Nina Hoss(Tár)Gabrielle Union (Check )Thuso Mbedu (Queen Queen)Laura Deng En(Son)

*Best Adapted Screenplay LAY*

WOMAN SPEAKS (Sarah Polley)The Glass Onion: Mystery of the Wild (Rian Johnson)
All Quiet on the Western Front (Edward Berger, Rice Leigh Patterson and Ian Stocker) LIFE(Kazuo Ishiguro)White Noise (Noah Baumbach)

Primary threat she said (Rebecca Lenkiewicz) Lady Chatterley’s Lover(David Magee)
Good Nurse(Kristy Wilson-Cairns)

Whale (Samuel D. Hunter)
Miracle (Alice Birch & Sebastián Lelio)

PossibilitySon(Christopher Hampton & Florian Zeller)Avatar: Way of Water(James Cameron, Rick Jaa Law and Amanda Silver) Top Gun: Maverick (Peter Craig, Ellen Kruger, Justin Marks, Christopher McQuarrie & Eric Warren Singer)

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Joe Robert Cole & Ryan Coogler)

*Best Original Screenplay*

FrontrunnerEverything at the same time (Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert)The Fabelmans(Tony Kushner & Steven Spielberg) — Podcast(Spielberg) Banshee of Inisherin (Martin McDonagh)Tár (Todd Field)The Triangle of Sadness (Ruben Östlund)

Main threat
Babylon (Damien Chazelle) — Podcast Queen Queen(Dana Stevens)Aftersun(Charlotte Wells)END OF THE WORLD TIME (James Gray) — podcast Till(Keith Beauchamp, Chinonye Chukwu and Michael Reilly)

possibility NO (Jordan Peele) — podcast
decided to leave (Park Chan Wook & Seo Kyung Jung)Check(Elegant Bratton)Elvis (Jeremy Doner, Baz Luhrmann, Sam Bromell & Craig Pearce)RRR (SS Rajamouli)


West Line Quiet (Germany)CLOSED(BELGIUM)Argentina,(Argentina) decided to leave (Korea )corsage(Austria)

Primary Threat
EO(Poland) Quiet Girl (Ireland)Holy Spider(Denmark)Saint-Omer(France) Bardo(Mexico)—​​ Podcast

(Alejandro González Iñárritu)

PossibilityReturn to Seoul(Cambodia)Happy Paradise(Pakistan)LAST FILM EXHIBITION(INDIA)Cairo Conspiracy(Sweden)The blue caftan (Morocco)

Best Documentary*

FrontrunnerEverything That Breathes (HBO)

Love On Fire(National Geographic/Neon) Navy(Warner Bros./CNN) Retrograde (National Geographic)

Primary threat All the Beauty and Bleeding (Neon) BAD AX (IFC )Descendants (Netflix)
Territory (National Geographic)Moonage Daydream(Neon)

possible Sex Jane The Clan (HBO) Hallelujah A: Leonard Cohen, A Journey, A Song (Sony Classics)
Children of the Mist (CAT&Docs) A House Made of Splinters(still seeking US release)

*Best Animated Feature*


Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix)Marcel the shell in shoes (A) turns red (Pixar) Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (DreamWorks) Wendell & Wilder (Netflix)

major competitor
Inu-Oh (GKIDS) singular World(Disney) Apollo 1/2 ( Netflix)Bob’s Burgers Movie ( th Century)
The Bad Guys (General)


Minions: Rise of Gru (Universal/Illumination)Eternal Spring (ARTE)Lucky (Apple/Skydance)My Father’s Dragon(Netflix)
Sea Beasts (Netflix)

*Best Makeup & Hair Design*

leaderBlack Panther: Wakanda ForeverQuiet on the Western FrontBatmanElvis


Major Threat

future crimeBabylonBlonde



*Best Original Score*

leads By method The Bellmans (John Williams) woman Speak (Hildur Guðnadóttir )Avatar : Way of Water ( Simon Franglen) Babylon(Justin Hurwitz) Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Alexandre Desplat)

Major Threat Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Ludwig Göransson) Queen Queen (Terence Blanchard) All Quiet on the Western Front (Volker Bertelmann) she said(Nicholas Brittle)

Banshee of Inisherin (Carter Burwell)

Possibility all at the same time (Son Lux)The Glass Onion: Mystery of the Wild (Nathan Johnson)Devotion (Chanda Dancy)Don’t Worry Darling(John Powell)NO (Michael Abels)



“Help me up”( Black Panther : Wakanda Forever ) — Ryan Coogler, Ludwig Göransson, Rihanna & Tems “Hold My Hand” ( Top Gun: Maverick ) — Bloodpop, Lady Gaga & Benjamin Rice — Podcast 1 and 2 (Gaga) “Naatu Naatu” (RRR ) — Kala Bhairava, MM Keeravani & Rahul Sipligunj “Stand Up” (Till) — D’Mile & Jazmine Sullivan
“Papa Ciao” (Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio) — Guillermo del Toro & Roeban Katz — Podcast (del Toro)

Primary threat “New Body Rhumba” (White Noise) — James Murphy “Carolina”(Where the Crawdads Sing) — Taylor Swift ) “Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” ( Avatar: Way of Water ) — Simon Franglen, Swedish House Mafia & Abel ‘The Weeknd’ Tesfaye
“This Is Life”(everywhere) — David Byrne, Ryan Lott and Mitski — Podcast (Bourne) ” Time” (Amsterdam ) — Aubrey ‘Drake’ Graham, Giveon Evans, Daniel Pemberton and Jahaan Akil Sweet

“Applause” ( Speak Like a Woman ) – Diane Warren – podcast
“My Mind and Me” ( Selena Gomez: My Mind and me ) — Selena Gomez — 1000583670839podcast “Good Afternoon” (Spirited) — Benj Pasek, Khiyon Hursey, Sukari Jones, Justin Paul and Mark Sonnenblick “Dust & Ash” (Sound of Dust and Ashes) — J. Ralph — Podcast

“Till You Get Home” ( A Man Called Otto ) – David Hodges and Rita Wilson



Top Gun: Maverick ElvisAvatar: The Way of WaterBlack Panther: Wakanda Forever

Primary Threat

Quiet on the Western FrontMoon DaydreamBatman

All at once Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

*BEST Visual Effects*

Frontrunner came to the world Supernatural Powers: Way of Water Black Panther : W akanda Forever

in the multiverse Doctor Strange Crazy BatmanTop Gun: Maverick

Primary threat
Quiet on the Western Front
Jurassic World Domination

Fantastic Beasts: Dumbledore’s Secret

PossibilityThirteen LivesNo




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