Arsh Tushar Mogre and Devayani Sathyan
BENGALURU (Reuters) – The Indian rupee will trade near its all-time low against the U.S. dollar next year and remains vulnerable to trade deterioration, according to Reuters A Reuters poll showed a balanced and positive Fed rate hike campaign.
Along with other emerging currencies falling against the strong dollar, the rupee has bottomed out several times this year and has weakened by more than 7%.
September 1-6 Reuters poll of 81 Forex analysts expect the rupee to weaken to 80/USD within a month and stay there until the end of November, despite the RBI’s U.S. dollar reserves have been drained to aggressively defend the currency.
Although it is expected to rise slightly to around 81.74/$ to the end of February and 78. 34/$ By the end of August, it is expected to increase by 2% over -month range would be nowhere near making up for the 7% loss for the year.
Although the median indicated a slight recovery, nearly half of the analysts surveyed is and some convertible rupees are expected to hit or break the 74/$ mark A six-month record low. Less than 12% predicted in the August poll.
“Until the Fed Crude Oil brakes and prices continue to fall sharply, the Indian Rupee and other EM currencies may continue to hit all-time lows against the USD ,” said IMF Brendan McKenna. Economist and FX Strategist Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC ) securities.
“Lack of growth momentum and a slowdown in China are now growing on the RBI’s radar screen… This is likely to exacerbate the sell-off left and right in the months ahead.”
was asked what is the lowest point of the rupee against the dollar in the next three months, Analysts who answered the additional questions gave a median of 56 and a range of 83 .12-83 .13/$.
is slightly weaker than .34/$ Consensus in last month’s polls.
Almost a three-quarter majority, of 34, answered another additional The person in question said emerging market currencies will fall slightly or sharply against the dollar over the next three months.
while India’s 12.5% growth is a major economy The fastest among the rupees, it has little impact on the rupee as the base effect is the main reason for the strong growth.
Already affected by rising oil prices and stubbornly high inflation, if the Fed raises rates again 41 basis points, the rupee is likely to weaken further at its next session.
A single move, likely to be followed by more hikes, will exceed the total 60 India is expected The base point at which the Reserve Bank will raise interest rates by the end of March. [ECILT/IN]
The ballooning trade and current account deficits are set to worsen to the highest in a decade, also expected to put more pressure on the rupee.
(Additional coverage of the September Reuters FX survey:)