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German house prices to fall 3.5% next year as buyers feel the pinch – Reuters poll

By Jonathan Cable

LONDON (Reuters) – German house prices are set to fall 3.5% next year as a cost of living crisis and rising borrowing costs hit consumers, but an outright collapse is likely Those prices are low, according to a Reuters poll of real estate market experts.

Coordinated consumer price inflation in Europe’s largest economy is 10. 6% The European Central Bank has been raising interest rates last month as the bloc heads into recession, putting huge pressure on household budgets.

German average house price to fall 3.5% in 2022 Nov 8-18 poll The 10 market watchers are predicting a sharp turnaround from the 0.5% gain forecast in an August poll. In 2023 they will drop 0.5%, but then rise 1.0% in 2024.

But when asked about the probability of a crash in the market in the coming year, 10 respondents indicated low, One means very low. Only one said it was high.

“Weak demand for home loans and declining consumer purchasing power suggest that a turnaround in the residential real estate market has begun – however, we expect a sharp correction in house prices rather than a real plunge”, Carsten Brzeski of ING Say. .0%, up to 12.5%.

” in the first quarter of

, we are again seeing very high growth compared to the previous year – a reduction of 10% compared to these values ​​is very realistic” says Jörg Utecht of mortgage broker Interhyp. After rising about 10% in price last year and projected to rise 3.0% this year, it needs to come down % from peak to trough. )

on scale 1 to 10, where 1 is cheaper, Expensive, with respondents giving a median answer of 7 – out of reach for many first home buyers or those looking to upscale.

(Additional coverage in Reuters Quarterly Housing Market Survey: )



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