Hurricane Ian path update: Ian now a Category 2; track shifts more to the east

Hurricane Ian changed into strengthening instant on Monday because it headed for Cuba.

The National Hurricane Center acknowledged Ian turned the Atlantic’s fourth hurricane of 2022 on Monday morning, and it had 100 mph winds as of Monday evening, making it a Category 2 storm.

Forecasters acknowledged that prerequisites had been instant going downhill in Cuba on Monday evening as Ian neared and that “vital” storm surge and destructive winds had been anticipated on substances of the island.

Florida could also be in Ian’s path later this week. Hurricane and storm surge watches bear been upgraded to warnings for Florida’s peninsula. Essential storm surge of up to 10 toes is a explain for areas attain the flee, particularly the Tampa metro situation.

The forecast tune looked to be coming into clearer focal point on Monday nonetheless persisted to poke eastward toward Florida’s west flee.

Alabama’s coastal areas had been now not in the so-known as cone of uncertainty, which stretched from the Florida Panhandle eastward to Florida’s Atlantic flee on Monday. On the opposite hand, depending on Ian’s tune substances of east Alabama could well furthermore secure some rain from the storm after it moves inland into Georgia this weekend.

As of seven p.m. CDT Monday, the center of Hurricane Ian changed into positioned about 130 miles southeast of the western tip of Cuba, and changed into on a path north-northwest at 13 mph.

Ian’s winds elevated to 100 mph on Monday, making it a Category 2 hurricane. The hurricane center acknowledged instant intensification is anticipated this day, and Ian could well furthermore changed into a Category 3 hurricane (winds 111 mph and better) by the time it reaches the southern flee of Cuba later tonight or early Tuesday.

Ian could well furthermore peak as a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds when it gets into the Gulf nonetheless is anticipated to weaken some earlier than it comes onshore in Florida gradual this week.

<blockquote class=”twitter-tweet”><p lang=”en” dir=”ltr”>Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings now issued for the local areas for the very serious situation coming to West Central and SW FL.

Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings now issued for the local areas for the very serious situation coming to West Central and SW FL. #FLwx see more at https://t.co/9KMble6VIV pic.twitter.com/AqF4dKmHkR

— NWS Tampa Bay (@NWSTampaBay) September 26, 2022

On the hurricane center’s safe forecast path, the center of the storm is anticipated to go attain or over western Cuba tonight and early Tuesday.

Then it gets into the Gulf and could well furthermore quiet tune to the west of the Florida Keys gradual Tuesday. Ian is anticipated to methodology the west flee of Florida on Wednesday into Thursday.

Ian could well now not be a vital hurricane by that point, because forecasters think wind shear and dry air could well furthermore relieve sap its energy. On the opposite hand this can quiet be a hurricane, and it could actually well well furthermore develop in dimension and decelerate, which could well be ghastly data for Florida if it comes to dawdle.

“Despite the reduction in intensity, Ian is inclined to bear an rising wind subject and could well furthermore quiet be slowing down by that time, that could well bear the aptitude to invent vital wind and storm surge impacts alongside the west flee of Florida,” the hurricane center acknowledged.

Of particular explain is Tampa, Fla., which is a inclined metropolis in phrases of storm surge. Five to 10 toes of surge will likely be doable in that situation, forecasters acknowledged. Those numbers bear elevated from earlier this morning.

This is from the weak director of the hurricane center on storm surge:

Right here’s a bear a look on the watches and warnings in role on Monday:

A hurricane warning is in attain for the Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio and Artemisa and in Florida from Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay as effectively as the Dry Tortugas.

A storm surge warning is in attain from Florida’s Anclote River southward to Flamingo and Tampa Bay.

A tropical storm warning is in attain for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque and Matanzas, the Decrease Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West and from Flamingo to Englewood.

A storm surge look is in attain for the Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West, the Dry Tortugas, Florida Bay, the Aucilla River to Anclote River, Altamaha Sound to the Flagler/Volusia County Line and the Saint Johns River.

A hurricane look is in attain alongside Florida’s west flee from north of the Anclote River to the Suwannee River and from Bonita Seaside to Englewood.

A tropical storm look is in attain for the Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge and Lake Okeechobee, from north of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass and from Jupiter Inlet to Altamaha Sound.

Cuba could well furthermore secure 9 to 14 toes of surge from Ian, and listed below are the amounts of surge doable in Florida:

Anclote River to Heart of Longboat Key including Tampa Bay…5-10 toes

Heart of Longboat Key to Englewood …5-8 toes

Englewood to Bonita Seaside including Charlotte Harbor… 4-7 toes

Bonita Seaside to East Cape Sable … 3-5 toes

East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge, including Florida Bay … 2-4 toes

Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas … 2-4 toes

The hurricane center acknowledged hurricane prerequisites are anticipated alongside the west flee of Florida in the warning situation on Wednesday, with tropical storm prerequisites likely foundation by Tuesday evening. Tropical storm prerequisites are anticipated in the warning situation by Tuesday evening. Hurricane prerequisites are doable in the look situation foundation on Wednesday, and tropical storm prerequisites are doable in the look situation on Wednesday into early Thursday.

Ian could well furthermore bring 4 to 6 inches of rain to the Keys, and 6 to 12 inches to the Florida peninsula, with local amounts as high as 20 inches.

The hurricane center acknowledged heavy rain is anticipated to impress north Florida, the jap Florida Panhandle, and substances of the Southeast gradual this week and over the weekend.