Bitcoin is finally seeing some green after trading at a loss over the past two weeks. The cryptocurrency continues to trade within a tight range, but activity in the options market could hint at a potential run toward new highs.
As of this writing, Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $27,900 with a 2.5% profit in the last 24 hours. Over the last week, the cryptocurrency has seen twice the profits recording a 4.4% performance. Other cryptocurrencies in the top 10 by market cap are experiencing similar momentum.
Bitcoin Options Hint At Fresh Rally?
Data from crypto options trading platform Deribit indicates a drop in Implied Volatility (IV). This metric measures the expectation of future price movements by market participants.
IV has been trading sideways over the past month, with a tendency to the downside. Deribit claims that growing uncertainty in the crypto market and the macroeconomic landscape is fueling the current dynamic on this metric, which translates into slow price action for BTC and crypto.
As the price of Bitcoin retraces, option buyers have been selling their contracts. When the opposite happens, and BTC sees an uptick, options sellers dump their contracts.
This dynamic has put “constant selling pressure” on the IV and contributed to suppressing the BTC spot sector. However, the upcoming U.S. debt ceiling, the date this country could default on its national financial commitments, could change the status quo.
The narrative around this event hints at a further appreciation for BTC and risk-on assets. Today, equities and crypto rallied as key political factions in the North American country reached a tentative agreement that could avert a crisis across the financial world.
Over the weekend and into today’s development, Deribit noted that maturity for BTC options turned profitable. The exchange also saw aggressive calls buying as the landscape signals profits for the cryptocurrency and prices return north of $27,000.
This large player bought calls (buy orders), betting that BTC could hit $34,000 somewhere in July/August 2023, as seen on the chart below.
Deribit stated in a market update:
Sub 7day ATM-28k Calls + July 31k Calls bought bravely ahead of the long weekend Theta turned profitable as Debt-ceiling talks progressed and a large DSOB buyer of July+Aug 34k Calls aggressively accumulated at higher prices just prior to Spot slicing through 27.3k and now 28k
Cover image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview