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Market Thinking: Breakthrough

Tom Westbrook’s outlook on the future of European and global markets

After months of stalemate, fighting on the front lines in eastern Ukraine has suddenly become fluid. Russia hastily abandoned its fortress Izium below Kharkov and lost control of a railroad junction supplying its troops in the northeast.

Quick action should give the market reason to reconsider the range of outcomes. Grinding attrition is still one, but reconquest – or some kind of unpredictable Russian revenge – has entered the equation.

Risk may have risen. Still, wheat futures fell in Asia as France struggled to bring more Ukrainian grain to global markets. [GRA/]

Stocks slid with a tailwind from Wall Street on hopes that tomorrow’s U.S. inflation data will show progress in a cooling that may moderate the outlook for interest rates.

Later on Monday, the UK is to publish monthly growth figures as well as industrial and manufacturing output.

Mourning and geopolitics are likely to continue for the rest of the week, with policy risks front and center next week;

Queen Elizabeth’s coffin crosses the sun on Sunday The illuminated Scottish Highlands arrive in Edinburgh, where they will be housed in St Giles Cathedral today, before heading to London on Tuesday.

This week, Xi Jinping will leave China for the first time in more than two years, in ancient silk Meeting with Vladimir Putin in Samarkand. This will be the meeting of Xi Jinping since he was 2013 President of China.

Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden have not met in person since Biden took office at 2021.

Key developments likely to affect markets on Monday:

Economy: UK GDP, industrial and manufacturing output

Speakers: De Guindos and Schnabel, ECB

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