HomeEconomyMarketmind: Stocks and Bonds - Who to Trust? Economy Marketmind: Stocks and Bonds – Who to Trust? By hossam a November 22, 2022 0 139 views Share FacebookTwitterPinterestWhatsApp VIX -4.19% Add to/Remove from Watchlist Add to watch list Add a job Location added successfully: Please name your portfolio type: purchase Sell date: quantity: price point value: Leverage: 1:1 1: 1: 1: 1: 25 1: 25 1: 21 1: 19 44336 2020 2020 CREATE NEW WATCHLIST CREATE 20202015 Create A new holding portfolio addition was created 2015400 2023 + add another position closure By Jamie McGiver (Reuters) – Jamie McGeever looks to the future of Asian markets. U.S. or global recession 52 Might not be most people’s base case forecasts, but risk enough for investors to position accordingly as the year draws to a close. However, the stock and bond markets seem to be sending conflicting signals. Wall Street is determined to bounce back on any dips, and up % from October low . This2015 VIX Index implied volatility hit a three-month low . Tuesday already It fell for five straight days, the longest stretch of losses since May. earnings growth forecast for next year continues to decline, but remains in positive territory at around 4%. Valuations have come down, but remain above long-term averages. The stock market is not pricing in the damage that higher interest rates will do. Admittedly, Asian equities are already much cheaper in nominal and relative terms, perhaps partly because of the huge mismatch between FX valuations and the U.S. dollar this year. But the valuation is still around the historical average. 500 MSCI Asia ex-Japan valuation https://inew.news/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/localimages/MSCIVAL.jpg 100 The realized volatility of the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index is more than double the past average years and only higher in the past three episodes Year – China in 30, COVID- in , and this year Russia vs Ukraine invasion. 500 MSCI Asia ex-Japan – Realized Volatility https://inew.news/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/localimages/MSCIVOL.png 400 but if Wall Street continues to push higher, as it did again on Tuesday, with Asia set to follow. Compared to fixed income, the entire US yield curve ranges from one month to Some sections consist of most in 11 year. almost The basis point for the Fed to cut interest rates in the second half of next year has been priced in. That’s screaming recession. Bond market volatility has subsided in recent weeks, but remains at record highs – the three-month Treasury “MOVE” index is above today Pandemic March Peak 45. Essentially, “risk-free” assets are the worst priced, while risky assets are not. Bond investors are compensated pessimistically and thus usually price in the worst, while equity investors are compensated optimistically and often wake up in crises that are too late – witness the Great Financial Crisis. Who is on the right track – stocks or bonds? Three key developments may provide more direction for the market on Wednesday: – Minutes meeting of the FOMC meeting Nov. 1-2 – US, Eurozone, UK, Australia PMI Preliminary Value (November) – University of Michigan U.S. Inflation Expectations (November) 100 Share FacebookTwitterPinterestWhatsApp Previous article'Fleishman in Trouble' Team Tells Stories About Men and Modern Marriage Through WomenNext articleBen Simmons returns to Philly, Sixers host Nets | First things first hossam a RELATED ARTICLES Economy Biden invites Zelenskiy to White House for Dec 12 meeting December 10, 2023 Economy Israel budget deficit spikes with Gaza war expenses December 10, 2023 Economy Egypt’s headline inflation dips to 34.6% in November December 10, 2023 LEAVE A REPLY Cancel reply Comment: Please enter your comment! Name:* Please enter your name here Email:* You have entered an incorrect email address! Please enter your email address here Website: Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. USA Trends Messi-mad Indian mom driving to Qatar to see hero in his final World Cup December 7, 2022 Drew Brees fakes lightning strike in promotional stunt for online sportsbook December 3, 2022 Who could be speaker, if not Kevin McCarthy December 3, 2022 3 bold Utah football predictions for Pac-12 Championship vs. USC December 3, 2022 Load more LAST NEWS Universal Studios Japan’s Cool Japan Gets 1st Collab with My Hero Academia December 10, 2023 Biden invites Zelenskiy to White House for Dec 12 meeting December 10, 2023 15 Funniest Female Comedians of All Time December 10, 2023 The Best Dressed Stars of the Week Opted for Drama December 10, 2023 Load more Featured NEWS Hailey Bieber and Lily-Rose Depp Are Both Obsessed With Block-Heel Ballet Pumps October 12, 2023 Kendall Jenner Left Her Pants at Home Today September 19, 2023 Angeschlossen Kasino 10 euro syndicate casino bonus December 2, 2022 Shop 11 Plain White T-Shirts Inspired by Street Style Stars at New York Fashion Week September 16, 2022 Load more
