FOX Sports MLB Gaming Analyst
The MLB regular season has ended, which means the wild card game will officially begin on Friday, October 7th.
I will guide you through these playoffs by providing you with daily study materials. The assignment includes previews of each game and some of my favorite bets. Meeting!
This is my favorite bet on Friday, with odds from
Tampa, Cleveland Guardians Bay Rays (Friday noon ET, ESPN)
For this series, don’t expect a lot of offense.
In wRC+, both batting lineups are in the middle of MLB (Rays 101, Guardians 99, 100 average). While both clubs started this best-of-three-inning series with their Aces, it was more about forcing pitchers to pitch more so they could get to the bullpen sooner. Here, the Thunder have the upper hand. In terms of swing percentage outside the strike zone, Tampa Bay is 32.5 percent and Cleveland is 34.2 percent. That plate discipline made me keep the light on the money line.
PICK:Rays Payline (FOX bet +100)
Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals
(Friday 2:00 EST)
While both pitchers have done an excellent job of limiting batting, the most obvious difference between Zack Wheeler and Jose Quintana is the strikeout hitter. Wheeler’s 26.9 percent is among the best in baseball, while Quintana’s 20.2 percent suggests he relies more on defense to get his game done. Philly has big questions about its defense, but having Wheeler on the floor will prevent those from becoming a problem, at least at the start of the series. I love Philly winning games.
PICK: Phillies odds (-110 bet on FOX)
Sailor wins 2022 Flippy Awards Flippin’ Bats
Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Friday 4:00 ET, ESPN)
Seattle has made a major investment in its newly acquired thrower Luis Castillo (a 5-year, $108 million deal). That’s totally understandable considering how well he’s pitching for the M’s since the deadline, especially his ability to keep pitching in the field. Since August, Castillo has hit 10.3 percent of his fly-ball home runs; last year, it was 15 percent. Given how strong the Blue Jays’ bat has been all season, the only way for Seattle to have a chance of winning this series is for Castillo to have a monster outing, and I let him do enough to keep the game low. I like Under.
PICK: Both teams have less than 7 points combined (FOX bets -118)
NEW YORK San Diego Padres at Mets (Friday 8:00 ET, ESPN)
Just because the Mets let the division championship slip away doesn’t mean they’re bad the rest of the way. Since Sept. 1, the Mets have ranked second in expected pitchers independent pitches (2.96) and third in wRC+ (116). My question for New York has always been about the health of the toughest one or two punches to start pitching: Scherzer and deGrom. While San Diego has been a different club since the start of the season thanks to a massive acquisition at the trade deadline, the Mets have a bigger impact when everyone is available. Assuming that stays the same for this series, I’m leaning toward the Mets’ run in this game.
PICK: Mets running line (FOX bet +105)
get out of class OUT!
Edward Eggros is a Sports Analysis Broadcaster/Writer, Sports Betting Analyst, Data Scientist and Adjunct Professor of Statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions have made him a cold brew lover. Edward has previously worked for local television, particularly at the Fox affiliate in Dallas, covering the Rangers, Cowboys and high school football teams. Follow him on Ttwitter @EdWithSports.