By Steve Adams | at
Carlos Correa
and Dansby Swanson are among the “big four” shortstops this offseason The Last While many Warriors fans may have held out hope for a reunion with Swanson, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reported that Swanson and the Warriors “haven’t had any legal discussions since the start of the offseason. Negotiations.” Atlanta’s most recent offer to Swanson was a six-year, 16-17 mm per year deal, according to Bowman, which is in line with reports last month that the Warriors offered Swanson a A contract close to 100 mm.
Offers in this range always feel light, even before the recent explosion of mega-deals at the high end of free agency. Trevor’s story of and Javier Baez both got 6 year $140 deals last winter and MLBTR predicts Swanson will be $154 guaranteed to get back in our top 50 free agents ranking. With Trea Turner Landing $300MM, Xander Bogaerts With $280MM and most top free agents getting bigger than expected guarantees this winter, Swanson is likely to exceed that number as well. Of course, the reported 96-102 mm range the Warriors last sat in feels less believable now than it did a month ago.
While it’s clear that the 11-year length of the Turner and Bogaerts trades are rooted in the Phillies’ and Padres’ desire to alleviate some of the luxury tax concerns, there’s no denying Yes, the overall coverage per contract exceeds most expectations. Turner was at least considered to have a chance of hitting $300MM, but Bogaerts shattered even the most optimistic predictions by pulling a $280MM total.Plus, since Bogaerts is joining a team that wasn’t even expected to be in the shortstop market, he’s lowering the supply of available shortstop, but not necessarily dampening demand (at least not with the Giants, Twins, or others. Clubs active in that market.
As a result, Swanson is now one of two high-end shortstops left in a market with at least three teams — no Including the current Braves — actively looking to add a shortstop. The Giants, Twins and Cubs are known to be active in the shortstop market, and it stands to reason that others may be on the perimeter.
For example, the Reds just got rejected by Bogaerts and the Sox might not want to pay Correa’s price, but could see Swanson as someone they could bait, with a contract closer to what they reportedly offered Bogaerts (six years, $162MM ). Meanwhile, the Orioles have at least assessed the asking price for available shortstop, though it’s still a shock to see Baltimore seriously add a bid for Swanson. The Cardinals are interested in Swanson, but in their Free agency could be out after big hit at receiver, sign Willson Contreras A five-year deal.
Perhaps as noteworthy as the lack of offseason communication is that Bowman further reports that Swanson has been “annoyed by the lack of communication” and has recently Contacted Braves President of Baseball Operations Alex Anthopoulos directly. Hard to hear this and not think about last offseason Freddie Freeman
in free agency, which was apparently somewhat surprising after Freeman left Atlanta and signed a six-year deal with the Dodgers.
So far, no sign Shows that the Warriors’ long-term offer is their best and final offer. If Swanson comes to the Warriors with serious offers from other suitors, Atlanta may increase their interest in Swanson and his position at Excel Sports Management accordingly. Offer from agent (same agency that represents Freeman).
That said, there were signs before the offseason that keeping Swanson Hardly a foregone conclusion.A few months ago, I dissected the Warriors’ payroll and how close they were to the luxury tax, and while both Warriors CEO Terry McGuirek and Liberty Media CEO Greg Maffei Optimistic comments were made about being willing to pay top-five payrolls, but none of them pointed to the fact that the Braves are pretty close to that — especially with their ongoing luxury tax ledger, which currently ranks fifth in baseball. Since then, there have been signs the Warriors won’t pursue non-Swan Sen shortstops, and they may be less willing to commit to any “exorbitant percentage of the payroll” salary (as reported by The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal in November).
As it stands, Braves is just over 3MM below Roster Resource’s predicted luxury threshold of 233MM. Signing Swanson would probably put them in tax and any additional acquisitions (or potential Max Fried extension) could Pushes them well into the second tier, and possibly towards the cliffs of the third tier. Moving into the third tier will drop them 10 spots in next year’s draft. Braves executives expressed willingness to at least go to the first luxury level, but in fact Atlanta got cash to help make up for Joe Jimenez salary in their recent deal with the Tigers doesn’t necessarily represent a team that will cross that threshold without concern.
Until he signs elsewhere, Swanson still has a chance to stay with his hometown Warriors. However, the lack of months-long negotiations, the possibility of a long-term offer well below his final price tag, and a market with at least two other active suitors cast doubt on whether Atlanta is Swanson’s most likely landing spot. .
