Friday, September 30, 2022
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Tropical Depression Nine formed in the Caribbean on Friday, and its path could take it to Florida next week as a major Category 3 hurricane, which could become Hurricane Hermione or Hurricane Ian, depending on how it interacts with the Atlantic Ocean. A new tropical depression compared to the enhanced speed. .

The National Hurricane Center said in an 11 a.m. update that TD9 was about 515 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica and 1,015 miles southeast of Havana, Cuba, with sustained winds of 35 mph and 14 mph.

“The latest NHC intensity forecast is an increase from the previous one and clearly calls for rapid intensification as the cyclone moves through the northwest Caribbean Sea,” said NHC hurricane expert Brad Reinhart. The system will approach the Cayman Islands and Cuba as a strengthening hurricane, with the potential for further strengthening once it emerges in the warm waters of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. In fact, the forecast calls for the system to approach the Florida peninsula as a major hurricane by day 5. ”

As of Friday, September 23, 2022 at 11 a.m., there are nine cones of uncertainty in the tropical depression. (National Hurricane Center)
The cone of uncertainty now covers nearly all of central Florida, with consensus landing somewhere between Tampa and Naples with a path that could take it to the middle of the state.

“I’m from Florida. So I’m going to have a candid talk with you. Don’t panic,” said NHC acting director Jamie Rhome. “It is important that you take this threat seriously and begin your hurricane planning in a calm and orderly manner while there is still time to prepare.”

It will intensify slowly over the weekend, and is expected to become a tropical storm later today and hurricane strength Monday morning, with its center south of Cuba, near the Cayman Islands and Jamaica.

“We’re looking at the road and it’s still not very clear, but it’s targeting the general direction of Florida sometime next week,” said Spectrum News 13 meteorologist Bryan Karrick. So I’ll spend the weekend getting your hurricane ready, maybe filling up the gas tank, getting your generators ready, some bottled water and canned food, and we’ll watch the system next week.”

 

In central Florida, which has had a lot of rain recently, the Seminole County Office of Emergency Management has begun providing sandbag services and is preparing shelters in case they are needed. The location of the shelter will not be released until the shelter is fully established and staffed.

Estimates of Tropical Depression Nine’s storm force probability of winning as of 5 a.m. Friday, Sept. 23. (National Hurricane Center)

The five-day path brought it north over Cuba on Tuesday before stopping off Florida’s southwest coast Wednesday morning with 115 mph winds and 140 mph gusts as a Category 3 hurricane.

“The system has had a well-defined circulation for the past 12 to 18 hours, but it wasn’t until overnight that continued convective activity persisted near the center long enough to be considered a tropical cyclone,” said NHC hurricane expert Philip. “Papin.

 

There are currently no coastal watches or warnings.

Tropical Depression No. 9 could bring heavy rainfall, flash floods and possible mudslides in Aruba, Bonaire and Curaçao, with heavy rain in Jamaica and the Cayman Islands over the next few days.

“There is still considerable uncertainty in orbital predictions on the day 4-5 time frame,” Papin said.

 

Elsewhere in the tropics, Hurricane Fiona has passed Bermuda and is now headed towards Canada, and Tropical Storm Gaston has turned and is heading towards a tropical depression 10 that formed over the Azores in the Atlantic Ocean and off the coast of Africa. .

The NHC is also tracking another system that has the potential to form the next tropical storm or depression.

The tropical outlook as of Friday, September 23, 2022 at 11 a.m. shows Hurricane Fiona, Tropical Storm Gaston, Tropical Depression Nine, Tropical; Great Depression X, and another system with the potential to form. (National Hurricane Center)

TD10 formed from an area of ​​low pressure between the west coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands, with showers and thunderstorm activity in the hours following TD9.

It is located about 305 miles east-northeast in the Cape Verde Islands with winds of 35 mph and 12 mph from the north-northwest.

Tropical depression 10 cones of uncertainty as of Friday, September 23, 2023 at 11 a.m. (National Hurricane Center)

It could develop into a brief tropical storm before weakening the next day, the NHC said. Whichever tropical depression first reaches sustained winds of 39 mph will be named Tropical Storm Hermione, followed by Tropical Storm Ian.

Also in the tropical mid-Atlantic, a broad area of low pressure several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continued to produce some sporadic thunderstorm activity. There may be some development as it drifts northwest or north in the mid-Atlantic, the NHC said.

The NHC gives it a 20% chance of forming within the next two days and a 30% chance of forming within the next five days.

Hurricane Fiona cone of uncertainty as of 11 a.m. Friday, Sept. 23, 2023. (National Hurricane Center)

Hurricane Fiona moved northward toward the Nova Scotia coast with sustained winds of 130 mph, regaining its intensity as a Category 4 hurricane.

As of 11 a.m., with its center about 250 miles north of Bermuda, the area is no longer under a hurricane warning, but remains under a tropical storm warning. It is moving northeastward at 35 miles per hour and is expected to make landfall as a large, powerful post-tropical cyclone with hurricane strength later today before crossing Nova Scotia into the Gulf of St. Labrador and crossed the Labrador Sea on Sunday.

The system’s wind field expanded as it moved out of the tropics, extending 115 miles for hurricane-strength winds and 345 miles for tropical storm-strength winds.

The Canadian Hurricane Centre issued a hurricane warning for Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, Madeleine Island and parts of Newfoundland, and for New Brunswick, Quebec, Anticosti Island and the rest of Nova Scotia. Tropical storm warnings issued for parts, Newfoundland.

While not a threat to Florida, waves from Fiona still caused surfing and boating problems, with strong current conditions along the U.S. East Coast, including Florida and the Bahamas.

Tropical Storm Gaston cone of uncertainty as of 11 a.m. Friday, Sept. 23, 2023. (National Hurricane Center)

 

Sustained winds of Tropical Storm Gaston returned to 65 mph as of 11 a.m. as its center was about 115 miles north of Faial Island in the Central Azores, heading east-southeast at 7 mph move.

“It is expected to move slowly to the southeast today, then to the south and then to the southwest tonight and early Saturday. On the forecast track, the Gaston Centre will move to Asia today through early Saturday. near or over parts of the Zores,” said the NHC forecaster.

The system’s tropical storm strong winds stretched 175 miles, but it is expected to become posttropical by Saturday as it moves westward in the Atlantic Ocean.

After nearly two months of silence, the tropics are catching up since Sept. 1, producing four named storms in three weeks.

NOAA updated its seasonal forecast in early August that 2022 will remain above average with 14 to 21 named storms, although none formed in August.

The 2020 hurricane season set a record with 30 named systems, while the 2021 hurricane season was third with 21 named systems. An average of 14 named storms are required per year.

 

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