WARSAW (Reuters) – Poland’s central bank governor Cezary Kochalski said there was significantly less room for further interest rate hikes, raising the prospect of ending the monetary tightening cycle.
Last week, the MPC raised rates by 25 basis points and the head of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) said the key rate could rise in October 25 The basis point is likely to remain unchanged on concerns that over-tightening monetary policy could hurt a slowing economy.
“…the scope for further rate hikes has diminished considerably, and the probability of ending the rate hike cycle has increased,” Kocharski wrote in response to a question from Reuters.
increased,” he added.
The September rate hike was the smallest in the current cycle. So far, the MPC has raised rates times, the current main interest rate is 6.20% .
“I don’t rule out the prospect of a 2023 rate cut. Much depends on the size of the slowdown and the expected fall in inflation,” Kocharski
Monetary Policy Committee forced to tighten monetary policy sharply – rates have risen since October 665 basis points2021 ) – due to rapidly accelerating inflation. Preliminary data showed that the CPI in August was 16.1%.
“I expect inflation in the third quarter of this year to be close to 16% and lower, albeit modestly, in the fourth quarter,” Kochalski wrote.
“There are many signs of consumer inflation in the next year given high costs and price pressures Growth will be significantly affected by the decision to maintain the inflation shield, which could significantly push inflation away from the 20% limit,” he said.
