MLB Loaded Free Agency Shortstop Market Preview and Forecast
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AP Photo/Adam Hungry
For the second straight offseason, the shortstop lane of MLB free agency is where the stars go.
Here’s what to know before you start shopping in earnest.
We’ll start by taking a quick look at the status of the positions and which players are available. After that, we’ll provide our views and predictions for the four top picks: Tria Turner, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson.
let’s start.
Location Status
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- Terry Turner, 29
- Xander Bogaerts, 30
Dansby Swanson, 28
Carlos Correa, 28
These players rank in the top seven shortstops in 2022 rWAR, averaging 5.4 rWARs. It’s an All-Star Division, and each of them has actually been honored at least once.
BTW in their Golden Glove awards, Correa and Swanson are top defense By. With his elite sprint speed, Turner was the best base runner. All four have the ability to comply with the high offensive post standards. All but Swanson passed with an OPS of 0.800, and even he safely saved an above-average 116 wRC+.
Viable regulars
Elvis Andrews, 34
Jose Iglesias, 32
Andrews is one of the most ineffective people every day The 2020 and 2021 shortstops have only 0.608 OPS and 0.2 rWAR. He then reinvigorated his career, hitting 17 home runs while hitting an above-average 3 outs. Iglesias ended the average with zero outs. He also hit a relatively empty .292 as he played home games at Coors Field and still hit just three home runs. But at least, he provided hitting skills and a good touch.
Bounce candidates
Didi Gregorius, 32
Andreaton Simmons, 33
Gregorius effectively fell outside of Philadelphia, just hitting He hit 1 home run in 63 games before the Phillies released him. Simmons’ season was derailed by an injury that sidelined him 34 games with a right shoulder injury before being waived by the Chicago Cubs.Both veterans should be considered top-notch games. Gregorius because he hit 20+ home runs in his prime. Simmons, because he was building a Hall of Fame-level career on his defense before he started having injury problems.
- Utility Type
- Aledemis Diaz, 32
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Marvin Gonzalez, 33
John Camargo, 28
Alcides Escobar, 35
Chris Owens, 31
Jonathan Villar, 31
Among a group of lacklustre players, Diaz is outstanding. A 2016 St. Louis Cardinals All-Star and National League Rookie of the Year contender, he most recently hit 12 regular-season homers in the Houston Astros’ championship season.
Dansby Swanson’s prediction
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AP Photo/Brett Davis
What happened to him at the table?
Swanson’s reputation as a great defender has only grown this season. He has good metrics on all fronts, the best of which is his position-high 21 outs above average. Atlanta Braves@Brave “I was running!” – @LieutenantDans7 #Back2Battle pic.twitter.com/ENJTDk4htz 
Swanson’s bat is usually not that stable, but it is become better. Over the past two seasons, he’s hit 52 home runs, which also includes career-high averages in speed (90.2 mph) and slugging percentage (46.3 percent).
The experience and proof of Vanderbilt’s products in the playoffs should also count. He played in 37 playoff games in Atlanta, notably helping the club to a championship with two home runs in the 2021 World Series.
What is his price tag?
If Báez and Story likely landed a six-year, $140 million deal last offseason after a relatively modest campaign in their 28-year-old season, that should be Swanson’s bottom line.Granted, Swanson’s earning power could be greater. The New York Post
negotiated a seven-year, $175 million deal with him.
- Which teams need him?
Swanson’s free agency leaves a huge hole in Atlanta, and the Los Angeles Dodgers, Minnesota Twins and Boston Red Sox are in the same boat. If Atlanta isn’t strong enough strength to keep him, any of the three could turn to Swanson. Otherwise there is no shortage of teams that can upgrade at shortstop. These include the Phillies, Cubs, New York Yankees, San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Angels, Colorado Rockies and Baltimore Orioles. The Yankees need Swanson’s defense more than most. With Isiah Kiner-Falefa getting most of the reps, their shortstop will have four fewer outs than average in 2022.
Which team can get him?
We will go with Atlanta. It is worth mentioning that the representative of Swanson is Casey Close, It’s no secret that he can’t get a new Freddy Freeman deal with Atlanta. Still, it’s hard to imagine Swanson leaving because he’s a Georgia native who’s been a big part of some great teams over the past seven seasons.Forecast by Xander Bogaerts
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- What did he bring?
Only the most stable bat the position has to offer. Bogaerts is a .292 Pro hitter and is the only shortstop with at least 128 OPS+ in three of the past five seasons — and he’s done it five times. Although Bogartes is not a baseman, only Andrews has more careers at shortstop fortress. It speaks to the Aruba native’s instinct to avoid being out and to make things happen. Red Sox @RedSox
XANDER BOGAERTS, YOU ARE THE MAN. pic.twitter.com/aBomDGzvTR
The two-time World Series champion Bogartz is usually his defense. But less now. He’s just been named a Gold Glove finalist for the second time, which isn’t out of the question considering his metrics.
What is his price tag?
Bogaerts opted out of a three-year, $60 million free agent. Nine times out of ten, he looks at a long-term deal with a total guarantee that starts with two.
It would be surprising if he had to settle for less than $200 million, but How far he will go above this level depends on the length of the trade. Since next year will be his 30-year-old season, an eight-year deal may be the best he can hope for. Which teams need him? The Red Sox clearly have a Bogart-sized hole at shortstop, and they face stiff competition in their quest to bring him back. Giants (according to Bob Nightengale’s USA TODAY
) and the Phillies (according to Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe )) has been linked with the Bogaerts, who will provide a huge offensive upgrade team for either side. As mentioned, the Dodgers, Twins and Atlanta also have holes to fill. The Angels are also worth watching. Whether owner Art Moreno wants to spend money while selling the team is a good question, but the Angels’ 68 wRC+ from shortstop in 2022 signals a call for offensive help.
Which team gets him?
We will go with the Red Sox.Chief baseball official Chaim Bloom told reporters in early October that keeping the Bogaerts will be the team’s priority this offseason Task. The club’s recent spending habits have raised some doubts in this regard, but its payroll is nearly $100 million less than it was at the end of the season.
Carlos Correa’s prediction
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) AP Photo/Abbie Parr
He brought What?
Correa leads all shortstops with 39.5 rWAR since his debut in 2015, and that number stems from everything.His hitters are well above average, including in the past two seasons, because he Hit an OPS of 0.842 with 48 home runs. The 28-year-old also generally scores well on the defensive end, never better than his Gold and Platinum Gloves in 2021.
Correa’s 18 playoff home runs in October tie him on all-time list seventh. There’s no getting around what the Astros did in 2017, but to be fair, Correa’s 11 playoff home runs came after that year.
- What’s his price tag?
Correa never got the $330-350 million contract he sought in the offseason, and he probably won’t get it this time. If for no other reason, he is now a year older. Yet his youth and talent may push his price tag closer to or even beyond 3 billion dollar threshold. If not through a 10-year deal worth $30 million a year, then maybe through an 8- or 9-year deal over or above his last contract’s $35.1 million AAV.
Which teams need him?
The twins want to bring Correa back, as Chairman Jim Pollard told Charlie Walters recently stone. Paul Pioneer Press Says He “Totally Agree” – Signed he. Whether that might depend on deep-pocketed clubs’ interest in Correa. To that end, the Phillies, Giants, Cubs, Red Sox and Yankees are all hypothetical. And, the Dodgers. Perhaps their fans have neither forgotten nor forgiven Correa for his role in the club’s loss to the Astros in the World Series in 2017, but Hyman reported on October 28 that the organization is equally serious about Correa. interested.
- Which team gets him?
We’ll go with the Dodgers.why? On the one hand, the biggest confusion. The baggage, on the other hand, shouldn’t obscure how well Correa’s holes at shortstop and the large sums in their coffers fit the Dodgers. They can sign him and trust him to make haters and naysayers out.Trea Turner’s forecast
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AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill
What did he bring?
Let’s start by admitting what a Turner is No
brought to the desktop , which is largely a defensive approach. He’s just made a career-high 16 mistakes, and the metrics he’s put up over the past four years have tended to be negative. Well, Turner is the most dynamic offensive player at shortstop or any other position, which is a good thing. Over the past three seasons, he’s averaging .316 with 27 homers and 31 stolen bases in 162 games.
Los Angeles Dodgers @Dodgers
TREA? he. pic.twitter.com/WQN3UZArNy While Turner has a career batting average of just .238 in the playoffs, he did win a ring with the Washington Nationals in 2019. And because of his speed and steal rate prowess, he’ll benefit from a bigger base and a 2023 MLB pitching clock than most.
What is his price tag?
While next year will be Turner’s 30-year-old season, it will be his 29-year-old season if the deadline is July 1 instead of June 30. So while an 8-year contract is the cap for Bogaerts, it’s probably more of a floor for Turner.Considering the average annual value could be somewhere between $30 million and Correa’s shortstop high water mark of 35.1 million Between $240 million, Turner should participate in sponsor ee of at least $240 million. At best, he would break $300 million.
Which teams need him? Maybe the Dodgers will get Correa eventually, but for now they should be seen as the favorite to land Turner. They certainly have the need and funds to re-sign him. Giants, Phillies, Cubs, Red Sox and Yankees are also very Fits Turner, but dare we say the twins are a dark horse? They stole a major’s 2022 league low of 38 bases, so if they consider Add some athleticism and Turner would be a natural solution. Chances are, signing him would also be cheaper than re-signing Correa.
Which team gets him? We’ll go with the Phillies.
Bryson Stott is a promising young player, but the National League champion may He moved to second base to accommodate Turner. Turner is also better suited for the starting spot than Kyle Schwaber, who hits 46 home runs in 2022 but hits a modest .323. Additionally, the team’s payroll has dropped by $64 million since the inception of free agency.
Statistics provided by Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Experts. - What’s his price tag?
AP Photo/Michael Dwyer
- Which teams need him?
AP Photo/Frank Franklin II
The quick attack is fundamentally the first position in defense, and the second most important in the range of defense to the catcher.
Still, this position has come a long way on offense, especially since Ernie Banks The end of his career coincided with the nadir of the shortstop’s offense in the early 1970s. The wRC+ for this position has risen steadily over the past 5 years, recently reaching a league average of around 100:
Graph via Google Sheets So no one should be surprised that modern shortstops are better compensated than most players. While the average salary for all MLB players in 2022 is just over $4.2 million, the typical shortstop makes over $5 million. Even without counting shortstop second basemen Marcus Semien and Trevor S. Torrey’s $315 million contract, and the 2021-22 offseason will certainly help push the latter numbers up. Carlos Correa (three years, $105.3 million) and Javier Báez (six years, $140 million) cleared 9 figures, while Corey Seager got a 10-figure-year, $325 million deal. Along with Francisco Lindo and Fernando Tatis, Seager is one of three shortstops with a $300 million contract. A background like this bodes well for a shortstop as a free agent, So what do we say when we meet them?
Who is a free agent?
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AP Photo/Ashley Landis
The essence of the crop
