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HomeEconomyRate hikes, Ukraine war, China dim Asia's growth prospects: ADB

Rate hikes, Ukraine war, China dim Asia's growth prospects: ADB

Enrico Dela Cruz

MANILA (Reuters) – The Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Wednesday cut its balance between 2022 and In the context of increasing risks such as intensified central bank monetary tightening, the aftermath of the war in Ukraine and the COVID-19 lockdown in China.

The ADB now expects the region’s combined economy, which includes China and India, to grow 4.3 percent this year, down from 5.2 percent in April to 4.6 percent in July.

For 2023, ADB said in the September edition of its flagship Asian Development, the region’s economy is expected to grow by 4.9 percent, down from April And the July forecast of 5.3% and 5.2%, respectively. Outlook report.

“The headwinds have strengthened since the April ADO,” said ADB Chief Economist Albert Parker.

“More aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve and other central banks is undermining global demand and disrupting financial markets.”

He warned that a severe global economic downturn will Seriously weakened demand for exports from the region.

China’s economy is expected to grow by 3.3% this year, falling further after the previous forecast was lowered to 4.0% from 5.0% in April. The ADB expects the world’s second-largest economy to grow 4.5 percent next year, down from a previous forecast of 4.8 percent.

The outlook for the subregions this year remains mixed, with growth in Southeast Asia and Central Asia expected to be higher than previously forecasted at 5.1% and 3.9%, respectively.

The Asian Development Bank maintained its growth forecast for South Asia at 6.5% despite lower growth forecasts for India and the economic crisis in Sri Lanka.

The Manila-based bank also raised its inflation forecast for the region as supply disruptions continue to push up food and fuel prices.

Average inflation in developing Asia is expected to reach 4.5% this year, up from 3.7% and 4.2% forecast in April and July, respectively.

For 2023, inflation is expected to hit 4.0%, compared to 3.1% and 3.5% forecast for April and July, respectively.

GDP growth 2021 2022 2022 2022 2023 2023

April Jul Sep Jul 9 Month

Central Asia 5.7 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2

East Asia 7.7 4.7 3.8 3.2 4.5 4.5 4.2

China 8.1 5.0 4.0 3.3 4.8 4.8 4.5

South Asia 8.1 7.0 6.5 6.5 7.4 7.1 6.5

India 8.7 7.5 7.2 7.0 8.0 7.8 7.2

Southeast Asia 3.3 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.0

Indonesia 3.7 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.2 5.3 5.0

Malaysia 3.1 6.0 5.8 6.0 5.4 5.1 4.7

Myanmar-5.9 -0.3 n/a 2.0 2.6 n/a 2.6

Philippines 5.7 6.0 6.5 6.5 6.3 6.3 6.3

Singapore 7.6 4.3 3.9 3.7 3.2 3.2 3.0

Thailand 1.5 3.0 2.9 2.9 4.5 4.2 4.2

Vietnam 2.6 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.7 6.7 6.7

Pacific-1.5 3.9 4.7 4.7 5.4 5.4 5.5

Developing Asia 7.0 5.2 4.6 4.3 5. 3 5.2 4.9

Inflation

Apr Jul Sep Jul Jul Sep

Central Asia 8.9 8.8 .3 11.5 7.1 8.1 8.5

East Asia 1.1 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.0 2.1 2.5

China 0.9 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.5

South Asia 5.8 6.5 7.8 8.1 5. 5 6.6 7.4

India 5.5 5.8 6.7 6.7 5.0 5.8 5.8

Southeast Asia 2.0 3.7 4.7 5.2 3.1 3.4 4.1

Indonesia 1.6 3.6 4.0 4.6 3.0 3.3 5.1

Malaysia 2.5 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.5

Myanmar 3.6 8.0 n/a 16.0 8.5 n/a 8.5

Philippines 3.9 4.2 4.9 5.3 3.5 4.3 4.3

Singapore 2.3 3.0 4.7 5.5 2.3 2.3 2.3

Thailand 1.2 3.3 6.3 6.3 2.2 2.7 2.7

Vietnam 1.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0

Pacific 3.1 5.9 5.9 6.2 4.7 4.7 4.8

Developing Asia 2.5 3.7 4.2 4.5 3.1 3.5 4.0

2022

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