Tuesday, October 3, 2023
HomeEconomyRBA to hike interest rates by 0.5 percentage points in September, slower...

RBA to hike interest rates by 0.5 percentage points in September, slower pace of tightening ahead – Reuters poll

Devayani Sathyan

BENGALURU (Reuters) – The Reserve Bank of Australia will raise the cash rate by another half a percentage point on Tuesday in a bid to stem a spike in inflation, but will slow growth for the remainder of the Pace of interest rates

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), one of the late players into the global monetary policy tightening cycle, has raised interest rates by a factor of 100. 175 The basis since May rose to 1.85%.

With inflation last recorded at a high of 6.1% two years ago and still rising, the RBA will have no choice but to follow its peers and raise rates further.

40 Twenty-seven Economists in August 15 – The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will raise interest rates by a 175 basis point at the September 6 meeting, raising interest rates to 2.

in a Reuters poll on September 1. %, more than triple what it was before the COVID-


All the big four local banks – ANZ, Westpac, CBA and NAB – are expected to raise 50 basis points on Tuesday. The remaining two are expected to change by 40 basis points.

If the majority view is realized, this will be the fourth consecutive rate hike of half a point in the current cycle, since the central bank launched on 1990 The most aggressive monetary policy tightening since the cash rate.

Despite a late start, economists expect the RBA to opt for a smaller move as early as next month as interest rates approach neutral levels that are neither stimulatory nor restrictive, Australia The central bank is estimated to be 2.50%.

“All inflation indicators are telling you that inflation pressures are still building and interest rates are still well below what the RBA considers neutral. Given that, I think they will do

basis points,” said David Plank, head of Australian economics at ANZ.

” but after next week’s move, when they hit 2.40%, let’s say they go 50, I think the October and November selections will become

or 50. We don’t think they will fall to 15, but they may.”

Most Respondents to the additional question predicted that the central bank will resume 25 basis point increments at its October and November meetings.

Economists have brought forward their rate hike expectations for the eighth consecutive Reuters poll by just over half, or 15 is

and the cash rate is now expected to be 3.10% or higher by the end of the year Years, roughly in line with market pricing.

The rest Respondents predict rates will end 2022 is 3.% or less. According to the median forecast, rates are expected to remain at 3. 10% until the end of next year.

However, inflation is more than double the peak of the RBA’s 2-3% target range and is expected to remain elevated next year, with some economists expecting half-point rates to continue rise.

Over one third of respondents, 10 10, the rate is expected to reach 3.40% or higher by the end of March.

“From here, we expect the RBA to move to a stable restrictive policy environment, but think it may be possible once a roughly neutral environment is reached next week. will slow the pace of rate hikes,” said Nomura economist Andrew Ticehurst.

“I acknowledge that, with hawkish communications from the Fed and other central bankers, the risks surrounding our forecast could be skewed upwards, namely a higher cash rate or a more aggressive rate than we forecast. Action.”



Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here


Featured NEWS