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Redrafting Ja Morant, Zion Williamson and the 2019 NBA Draft

Andy Bailey@@AndrewDBaileyTwitter Logo
Guest Columnist IV September 2, 2022

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    Ja Morant and Zion Williams Sen. (Justin Ford/Getty Images)

    Today’s media environment demands instant analysis of the NBA draft, but it takes time to get a clear picture of how each team is doing.

    For the 2019 draft Class, we now have three seasons to choose from. If teams knew what they knew, the first round would have been very different. With these extras info, we’ll redraft our top 30 picks for 2019, but the order won’t be based entirely on past production. These players are still in Early – to the 20s, theoretically pre-prepared. So there’s a lot of subjectivity in the game as well. Sorting each of them requires a lot of judgment calls. Basketball game must also be considered evolution. Three years ago, the idea of ​​positionless basketball (and the importance of extending to the wing) probably wasn’t as popular as it is now. put all of the above into Toss into the analytics cocktail, here’s how the first round should get out of it’s redrafted today (assuming an order of 30 generic teams, not the original 2019 order). Check out B/R other NBA reselections here: 2016, 2017, 2018 1 of 14

      Nasir Little (Stephen Chambers/Getty Images)

      30. Cam Reddish (No. 10 of the original selection) Cam Reddish has averaged 2 per game in each of his three seasons Double, he holds promise in 2021-22 with a 35.9 3-point shooting percentage of his own from the perimeter. But there was actually one case that took him out of the top 30 altogether.

      Reddish Career Playing just 133 regular-season games, he ranks 55th in the 2019 draft in wins over bench players. Among 49 players with at least 100 attempts — excluding undrafted players — he ranks 43rd in effective field goal percentage. Nevertheless, the prototype 3D The physical profile of the wing, and the fact that he’s only 22 years old makes Reddish worth redrafting the flyer. 29. John Konchar (not originally drafted) John Konchar doesn’t have Reddish’s raw scoring average or pre-draft hype, but his senior numbers suggest he should be much higher than No. 29 here. During his career Conchar ranks in the top 80 in plus-minus among all NBA players, averaging 10.3 points, 8.8 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.4 3-pointers and 1.4 3-pointers per game. 1.4 steals per 75 possessions. He also shot 40.6 percent from three-point range. Basketball is a team sport, and at all five positions, scoring upside isn’t necessarily what you want. Having a fill-in player like Konchar, even if he’s as good as he can get, can greatly increase wins.

      28. Nickeil Alexander-Walker (No. 17 initially selected)

      Nickeil Alexander-Walker’s scoring isn’t much different than Reddish’s in points per possession and effective field goal percentage. Alexander-Walker’s assist rate is more than double Reddish’s, though, and he typically brings more explosiveness off the dribble. By virtue of being in the organization A clear advantage in potential, Alexander-Walker gets the nod.

      27. Nassir Little (Original No. 25)

      Picking a player with a career average of 5.8 in the top 25 might feel a bit far-fetched, but Nassir Little doesn’t have much of a chance to show off his offense. Until last season, he had been on a Damian Lillard-led team focused on winning rather than young player development. However, in Leila After Derek left the 2021-22 rotation with an abdominal injury, Little is averaging 13.1 points and 2.1 3-pointers while shooting 40.3 percent from the field. Only played 12 games, but his 33.8 three-point percentage over the past two seasons suggests he can be a reliable shooter. If you are concerned Little’s 6’5″ build, remember his wingspan is 7’1¼” . 26. Luguentz Dort (not originally drafted)

      Advanced stats and his shooting percentage paint a bleak picture of Lugenz Dort’s career. His box plus-minus has never been better than a bench, and he’s shooting just 39.5 percent from the field and 33.3 percent from 3-point range.

      Basketball Reference Acknowledge the shortcomings of BPM in measuring defense. Dortmund is already an excellent point guard with room to grow.

      if He can be more consistent from the perimeter — and there’s no reason to think a 23-year-old can’t improve on that — and he’ll be a legitimate Three-D threat.

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      Kevin Potter Jr. (Mark Blinch/Getty Images) 25. Coby White (Original No. 7)

      Due in part to the low steal rate and below-average true shooting percentage, Coby White has yet to post a plus-minus above the bench. A little more play would be nice too. (His career average is 4.5 assists per 75 possessions). However, there are some reasons for optimism. The 6-foot-5 White has shown some potential as a high-volume field scorer who can finish off the bench. During his career, White has attempted 7.8 3-pointers per 75 possessions while shooting an above-average 36.5 percent from deep. Marginal improvements to the aforementioned weaknesses could make White a high-end reserve. 24. Naz Reid (not originally drafted)

      Over the past two seasons, Natsu Reed has quietly become one of the more reliable backup centers in the league .

      there During that stretch, he averaged 9.7 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.0 blocks and 0.8 three-pointers in 17.4 minutes per game (the equivalent of 19.7 points, 8.6 rebounds, 2.0 blocks per 75 positions, and 1.6 three-point sessions). ). He also shot 34.7 percent from three-point range.

      23. Kevin Porter Jr. (No. 30 initially selected) Kevin Porter Jr.’s points and assists were there. In each of the past two seasons (his scoring averages are 15.9 and 6.2, respectively). What’s really encouraging is his career-high 3-point percentage (6.8) and 3-point percentage (37.5) per game last season. Porter’s history of “anger management issues” is worrying, but it’s hard to deny his offensive potential. If he invests more defensively and continues to improve his consistency on both ends of the floor, he could become a long-term starter. 22. Terance Mann (Original No. 48) 3D players willing to do the dirty work without heavy usage have never been more popular. That’s exactly what Terrence Mann did with the Los Angeles Clippers. 2021-22 season, Mann averaged 10.8 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 0.9 three-pointers in 28.6 minutes per game at positions 2, 3 and 4. The Lakers are scoring 1.9 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the floor and 2.2 points per 100 possessions when he’s off the floor. Mann career 37.9 ‘s three-point shooting suggests he can be trusted to stretch the space in the future. 21. Chuma Okeke (Original No. 16) Chuma Okok checks the defensive box in a ternary assessment, maybe even more thoroughly than Mann does. For forward/ For the wing, he averaged 6.2 defensive rebounds, 2.0 steals and 0.9 blocks per 75 possessions. Being an inch taller and a year younger also lends itself to a head-to-head comparison with Mann. If Okoke can improve his long-range shooting (his career 32.6 percent from 3-point range), he has a chance of being the fourth or fifth starter or long.

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          Cody and Caleb Martin (Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

        20 . Nicolas Claxton (Original No. 31)

        We haven’t seen a lot of Nicolas Claxton yet. He’s played a career-high 47 games in 2021-22, but he’s been good enough over the past two seasons to be a running and rim-protecting big man. Since the start of the 2020-21 season, Clarkston has put up 14.4 points, 10.0 rebounds and 2.1 blocks per 75 possessions while shooting 65.1 true ball percentage. Over the same time period, the Brooklyn Nets’ net rating was much better with him on the floor.

        19. Caleb Martin (not originally drafted) It might be a bit of a stretch to push Caleb Martin all the way to the top 20 Trouble overreacting to his 2021-22 breakout campaign. But if he’s that version of himself, he’s the kind of fill-in forward who could fill any of the league’s 30 teams. Martin’s defense is very serious, He shot 41.3 percent from 3-point range last season. Having a major positive impact on the point differential of a title contender like the Miami Heat says a lot about third-year players. 18. Cody Martin (Original No. 36) Like his twin brother, Cody Martin has exploded this season with solid strength, a transferable defense and a career from downtown. (He shot 38.4 percent from 3-point range with the Charlotte Hornets.) What makes him special is the same thing they did when they played for Nevada in college. In addition to the athleticism that leads to stops and highlights dunks, Cody can play some forward roles. In today’s more In an increasingly positionless NBA, at least a little playmaking at all five positions can lead to a dynamic offense. 17. Daniel Gaford (Original No. 38) Like Claxton, Daniel Gafford hasn’t played many NBA seasons in his three games, but he already looks like a true Tyson Chandler type. in his career Among them, Gafford averaged 16.3 points, 9.5 rebounds and 2.9 blocks per 75 possessions (tied for fifth in the league), along with a 70.1 true shooting percentage.

        16. Jaxson Hayes (Original 8th) We added another big basket to the five, although Jaxson Hayes also showed a hint of 3-point potential. Hayes All Max The highlights are all ridiculous dunks, but his emergence as a possible bottom player is especially interesting. He’s only made 71 attempts over the past two seasons, but 36.6 percent of them are at least encouraging. If this becomes the main part of his game, then his predictability in the pick-and-roll will be much less.

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        Rui Hachimura (Jordan) Johnson/NBAE via Getty Images)

        15. Max Strus (not originally drafted) It might be premature for Max Strus to be in the top 15 after a good season, but the 2021-22 season has been a very bad one for him. Struth Field Averaged just 23.3 minutes per game, 10.6 points and 2.7 3-pointers while shooting 41.0 percent from the field. Doing that for a contender is enough to make him one of the more interesting 3-point shooters in the game, and back that up with similar results in the playoffs. 14. Grant Williams (No. 22) Grant Williams has emerged as a formidable triple-D power forward for the championship-winning Boston Celtics. He has built that reputation on a brighter stage than most other players so far. Williams has hit In 46 playoff games, he shot 42.7 percent from 3-point range in those games. The Celtics’ willingness to pair him with superstars like Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant also shows his defense. If Williams was in The rebound has improved, and he could become a staple of the Celtics’ starting five when Al Horford retires. But his bread and butter could be a space for defense and catch-and-shoot for years to come.

        13. DeAndre Hunter (Original 4th) You’ll see a lot of wings and forwards here that lag far behind those already detailed in state-of-the-art stats, but due to the greater workload, they Got some passes. by Dean Take Andre Hunter, for example. His career plus-minus is well below average, but he’s been asked to do more than many others at this level, especially defensively. He also spent more time playing with the starters. Hunter’s insignificant rebound , assists, steals and blocks are concerning, but his 13.2 points per game and career 35.9 3-point percentage are encouraging as a full-time starter. He can continue to add less glamorous things to development. The first option to score and be trusted to defend an opponent is not to be underestimated. 12. Rui Hachimura (No. 9 in the original selection)

        Like Hunter, Hachimura lags in the advanced numbers, but he’s the one who also spends a lot of time against the starters. Over the past two seasons, he has established himself as a potential high-end floor spacer. Last season, eight Muraru’s three-point shooting rate is as high as 44.7%. His 38.5 percent mark since the start of the 2020-21 season is still interesting if you’re concerned about what his smaller role might have contributed to that. But it’s not eight All that the village did on the offensive end. His shooting diet is all over the floor, and he’s shooting above average in 2021-22.

        11. PJ Washington (Original No. 12)

        Over the past two seasons, the Charlotte Hornets have been +1.2 points per 100 possessions with PJ Washington on the floor and minus-3.0 when he’s not on the floor. That impact is the result of a more well-rounded (though perhaps less prolific) game in the NBA. From 2020- Since the start of the 21 season, the Wizards have averaged 11.6 points, 5.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.7 three-pointers, 1.1 blocks and 1.0 steals per game. No one has achieved or exceeded all six points during that time period, and the only players to have completed them all in any two-year period are DeMarcus Cousins, Kevin Durant and LeBron james.

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          <img decoding="async" alt="" itemprop="contentUrl" src=",h_27,c_fill/v1661113304/um1it8c5sz7o2ymurpue.jpg"></p> <p class=""> </p> <p> <span></span> David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images <i></p> <div itemscope="" itemtype=""> During his career, Matisse · Thybulle only averaged 4.8 points and shot 32.4 percent from 3-point range. That alone makes it impossible to justify his top-10 pick in the re-draft. But here Few players match Boolean more to benefit from a vision test. When you watch him play, it’s clear he’s an absolute threat on the defensive end. Thybulle Can control passing lanes without sacrificing individual matchups or team rotation. His ability to get back to the 3-point line or on the rare occasions he was blown down is unmatched among guards and wings. He can be trusted to defend a variety of positions and players as well. After just three seasons , Thybulle is already one of the best defenders in the NBA. Manu Te Boer is the only player in NBA history to have a career defensive plus-minus higher than Thybulle. Carey Scurry is the only player to match or exceed Thybull’s career points in steals (2.7) and blocks (1.6) per 75 possessions. If Sable is after It would be nice if the field became more consistent, but the Defensive Player of the Year on the other end should make him a rotation player for years to come. <img decoding="async" alt="" itemprop="contentUrl" src=",y_375,w_1800,h_1197,c_crop/w_40,h_27,c_fill/v1661113200/ehyx08qz0b2o8gkdfprl.jpg">6 of 14</p> <div itemscope="" itemtype=""> <div><img decoding="async" alt="" itemprop="contentUrl" src=",y_106,w_1800,h_1197,c_crop/w_40,h_27,c_fill/v1661113104/n73hyomcrz2ysq8cmg32.jpg"><img decoding="async" alt="" itemprop="contentUrl" src=",h_27,c_fill/v1661104722/eq7mvyx4m5d166vijtzi.jpg"><span></span> Michael Gonzalez/NBAE via Getty Images <i> Three years later, Cameron Johnson, who was slightly protested by the 11th overall pick in the original draft, now finds himself two spots closer to the top. This 26 The 20-year-old is closer to his prime than many of his peers. But even if he doesn’t have more development runway, he’s proven to be a high-end floor spacer and solid positional defender. Johnson Regular Season Played 4,422 minutes, attempted 2.1 3-pointers per game, and had a career effective field goal percentage of 57.0. Only seven players matched or exceeded all three points in the same span. Johnson’s height (6 ‘8½” and 6’10” wingspan) makes him an easy plug-and-play option, also for heavy-switching defensive scenarios. </i></div> <p><img decoding="async" alt="" itemprop="contentUrl" src=",y_375,w_1800,h_1197,c_crop/w_40,h_27,c_fill/v1661113200/ehyx08qz0b2o8gkdfprl.jpg"></p> <p>7 of 14</p> <ol> <div><img decoding="async" alt="" itemprop="contentUrl" src=",h_27,c_fill/v1661113304/um1it8c5sz7o2ymurpue.jpg"><img decoding="async" alt="" itemprop="contentUrl" src=",h_27,c_fill/v1661104722/eq7mvyx4m5d166vijtzi.jpg"></p> <p><span></span></p> <div> Ryan Murdoch Jr./NBAE via Getty Images <span itemprop="citation"> It took Keldon Johnson some time to get into his current role, But he looks like a 2021 second option — 22. He averaged 17.0 points and 2.1 3-pointers per game last season while shooting 46.6 percent from the field and 39.8 percent from 3-point range. San Antonio under 0.500 The Spurs can also play winning basketball when they’re on the court. In Johnson’s 2,390 non-garbage minutes, the San Antonio Spurs were plus-1.8 points per 100 possessions and minus-3.7 when he was out. needle movement so far , which is encouraging for a losing team, especially since Johnson is only 22 years old. The 6-foot-5 wing still has plenty of time to increase his playmaking skills and become a more consistent and versatile defender. </span></div> <p><img decoding="async" alt="" itemprop="contentUrl" src=",h_27,c_fill/v1661113304/um1it8c5sz7o2ymurpue.jpg">8 / 14</p> <div itemscope="" itemtype=""> <div> <div id="slide10"> <div itemscope="" itemtype=""> <div> <span></span> David Burding/Getty Images </p> <p class=""> <p><small> Brandon Clarke is almost completely off the 3-pointer from his shooting diet in 2021-22, and he instantly becomes the NBA’s most efficient One of the back-up scorers. His 65.0 effective field goal percentage ranked fifth among 177 players who averaged at least 10 points per game last season. </small> Clark is undoubtedly One of the most dynamic and explosive rim runners in the league, but he’s far from one-dimensional (even without the 3-point shot). His contact with runners and his push from three feet make him less predictable than some of the NBA’s dunk-only bigs. Although Clark may not be one A closed rim protector or a strangling one-on-one defender, but he’s at least in both areas. A strong combination of steals and blocks backs that up. </p> <ol> 9 of 14</ol> </div> <div id="slide0"><img decoding="async" alt="" itemprop="contentUrl" src=",h_27,c_fill/v1661113580/h7054irk8fkx4hluwtgv.jpg"></p> <ol> <small><span></span></small> Patrick Smith/Getty Images <img decoding="async" alt="" itemprop="contentUrl" src=",h_27,c_fill/v1661112861/tbrzhtvjl1vy4pqtd92i.jpg"> Based on stats alone, RJ Barrett doesn’t really have any arguments for making the top 10 in this reelection. He ranks 39th among players with career wins over bench players in 2019, and his effective field goal percentage is 6 percentage points below average. That’s not all. In Barrett’s three seasons, the New York Knicks were minus-2.4 points per 100 possessions when he was on the floor and 1.9 when he was off the court. So why does he Rank 6? On the one hand, he still has the pedigree that made him a 2018 high school recruit and 2019 third overall pick. </ol> <p>Barrett The height (6-foot-6 with a 6-foot-10 wingspan) is typical for a wing in today’s NBA. And he at least showed what it takes to be a modern striker. </p> <div id="slide1">exist In 2020-21, Barrett shot 40.1 percent from beyond the arc. During his career, he averaged 3.2 assists per 75 possessions. He’s shown the ability to stay in front of guards and wings when he’s locked up defensively. If he can in the future Bring everything together in a few years, and there’s still star potential here. <img decoding="async" alt="" itemprop="contentUrl" src=",h_27,c_fill/v1661113580/h7054irk8fkx4hluwtgv.jpg"></p> <p>10 of 14</p> <p><img decoding="async" alt="" itemprop="contentUrl" src=",h_27,c_fill/v1661113408/xrlh5mdqjffqi1otyeec.jpg"><span itemprop="citation"><span></span> Eric Espada/Cover Tee Photos</span></div> <p class=""> RJ Barrett is bigger than Tyler Herro and almost certainly has a bigger defensive edge. But Herro has done better in his first three seasons, and in 2021-22, he’s at a level that Barrett hasn’t. </p> <p> Hero per game 20.7 points, 5.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 2.7 3-pointers while shooting 39.9 percent from the field en route to sixth place for the Person of the Year award. That breakout season made his career numbers look a lot like Devin Booker’s first three years. This comparison does not Means Herro will be a player at that level, but it at least paves the way for an All-Star ascent. </p> <p class=""><img decoding="async" alt="" itemprop="contentUrl" src=",h_27,c_fill/v1661113680/td9nvxw0cqi62vzvtroi.jpg"></p> <p>11 14</p> <h5></h5> <p class=""> <p><span></span>Joe Shi Leong/NBAE via Getty Images </p> <div id="slide1"> Tyler Herro and Jordan Poole have surprisingly similar numbers over the past two seasons. The latter gets the nod here for several important reasons. First, Poole seems to have a higher advantage as a defender (even if it’s not a full-on potential), thanks in part to his 3.5 inches longer wingspan. The extra length should make it easier to deploy Poole into the kind of positionless lineup that his Golden State Warriors are so popular with. </p> <p class=""> another reason– It may also be more important — Poole showed a higher ceiling in the playoffs. Despite only one playoff appearance to his name, it was a playoff champion, where he averaged 17.0 points and 2.3 3-pointers while shooting 39.1 percent from 3-point range. </p> <p> He’s just the kind of kinetic-swinging reserve the Warriors need to get back to the top. While Herro has outpaced Poole in 3-point shooting, Poole’s shot selection is better for analysis. He’s also been much better at the 3-point line over the past two seasons (54.9 percent to 48.5 percent). </p></div> <p><img decoding="async" alt="" itemprop="contentUrl" src=",h_27,c_fill/v1661113680/td9nvxw0cqi62vzvtroi.jpg">12 of 14<img decoding="async" alt="" itemprop="contentUrl" src=",h_27,c_fill/v1661104722/eq7mvyx4m5d166vijtzi.jpg"></p> <h5><span itemprop="citation"><span></span> Rick Osentowski/Getty Images </span> The Cleveland Cavaliers rebuild feels a bit ahead, thanks in large part to Darius Garland becoming a true All-Star player. He’s on the fringes in 2020-21, but last season was a reasonable break. in addition to the original data (field Aside from averaging 21.7 points, 8.6 assists and 2.6 3-pointers and 38.3 3-pointers), Garland’s control and speed are typically reserved for point guards with a few years of experience. He can run defenses as a pick-and-roll ball handler, take down opponents one-on-one or take a corner jumper. At just 22 years old, Garland is already one of the best point guards in the game, and he still has room to grow as a guard. </h5> </div> <p>13 of 14</p> <div itemscope="" itemtype=""> <div itemscope="" itemtype=""> <p> <span></span> Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images </p> <div itemscope="" itemtype=""><small> It makes sense for Ja Morant to be the No. 1 pick in this reelection. He’s an exciting driver that transcends the small market he’s dabbling in. </small> in career 14 In the playoffs, Morant averaged 28.2 points, 9.2 assists, 1.9 threes and 1.4 steals. The 23-year-old is also already in the top 10 in MVP voting. So why is he Second place? First, Morant A little guy by NBA standards. Not only is he 6-foot-3, he’s also svelte, which is part of the reason he’s struggled on the defensive end. Aside from Stephen Curry and Isiah Thomas, there aren’t many undersized point guards on record for the best point guard on a championship team. Morant on defense End is bad enough that he has been the target of opponents. That’s the biggest reason the Memphis Grizzlies went 20-5 without him last season and their net rating improved significantly. </p> <p class=""> <p>14 of 14<img decoding="async" alt="" itemprop="contentUrl" src=",h_27,c_fill/v1661104722/eq7mvyx4m5d166vijtzi.jpg"></p> <p><img decoding="async" alt="" itemprop="contentUrl" src=",h_27,c_fill/v1661113680/td9nvxw0cqi62vzvtroi.jpg"></p> <div itemscope="" itemtype=""> <p><span></span></p> <div id="slide1"> Ned Dishman/NBAE via Getty Images </p> <p> <img decoding="async" alt="" itemprop="contentUrl" src=",h_27,c_fill/v1661112861/tbrzhtvjl1vy4pqtd92i.jpg"> After missing a full season and having a headache over those absences, it’s more than wondering about Zion Williamson’s long-term durability more fair. </p> <p> Before his NBA debut, we had never seen a player of his size move this way. The kind of explosive power and torque he produces gives reason to doubt his joints, ligaments, etc. But if he Healthy, Zion clearly has “championship player of the year” potential. He has a supernatural Feel, when driving or cutting the driveway will open. With his size, speed and strength, he can utilize these lanes in a way no one else can. His athleticism is terrifying. By the end of 2020-21, we’re starting to see it marry some striker skills. The term is widely used in sports, but Zion is truly unstoppable. His career scoring 28.9 points per 75 possessions is second only to Michael Jordan and Joel Embiid (both 30.3). Zion’s 64.0 true shooting percentage ranks first among 22 players who have averaged at least 25 points per 75 possessions since the 1973-74 season (in terms of per-possession data). It’s a bit of a gamble with him to stay first in the replays, but no player offers a higher potential reward. </p> <div id="slide1"> Unless otherwise stated, all stats are by Basketball Reference, Stats , Clean Glass, and<i></p> <div itemscope="" itemtype=""> <div id="slide0"> <div> 🚨 Sports News ➡️ Your inbox </p> <p> The latest news from the world of sports, emailed daily. <i></i></p> </div> </div> </div> <p></i></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </ol> </div> </div> <p></i>



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