(This content was produced in Russia, where laws restrict coverage of Russian military operations in Ukraine)
By Andrey Ostrukh
Moscow (Reuters) – Stock markets will pare some of their severe 2022 losses by the end of the year, a Russian Reuters poll of ten market experts showed.
Russian stocks have 2020 has been rising since the second quarter and hit an all-time high in October 2022, in 68 68% of ruble-denominated market capitalization in the first two months before the massive sell-off.
By the end of this year, the benchmark MOEX ruble index is expected to rise to 2, 500, 11.2% above Monday’s close 2,279.12 but significantly lower than 4,350 by Reuters Russia last Forecast market surveys to be released in December.
MOEX reached a record 4, 292. 68 Mid-October last year.
This year, the market landscape has changed dramatically since Moscow started so-called “special military operations” held in Ukraine in February 24. Risk aversion surged, but fundamentals such as strong prices for Russia’s main export, oil, supported the market.
Russia also banned foreign investors Trading stocks, cutting off external liquidity, and a surging number of domestic retail investors have become the main drivers of the market, hit by unprecedented Western sanctions.
Moscow Exchange, Russia’s largest exchange, is currently Considering allowing investors from designated “friendly” countries to return to the market without sanctions against Russia. Analysts warn this could hit stocks.
“Key risks to Russian stocks in coming months It is possible that non-residents from ‘friendly’ countries that have fewer investors than those from ‘friendly’ countries may return. Elena Kozhukhova, an analyst at brokerage Veles Capital, said that
forecasts for late readings of the MOEX index
in a Reuters poll in August rose from 2, 400 to 3,500.
The U.S. dollar-based RTS index is expected to trade 1,279 points by the end of the year, up about 9 points from Monday’s close % 1,173.11 .
Erik DePoy, equity strategist at Gazprombank, said the chances of another major sell-off are low as Russian stocks are largely disconnected from global market sentiment, with the exception of oil and metal prices.
“Assuming no other major external shocks, there appears to be little downside catalyst,” DeBoy said.
Analysts also see some upside in the Russian market, hoping relations between Moscow and the West will not deteriorate further.
The impact of sanctions risks should be absorbed by the end of the year, and geopolitical risks may ease, chief analyst Natalia Milchakova said at Freedom Finance Global.
“The risks are mostly to the upside as we expect the geopolitical situation to move towards diplomacy rather than force,” said Andrey Kochetkov, an analyst at Otkritie Investment.
(Other stories in Reuters Q3 global stock market survey package:)
(Reporting and polling by Andrey Ostrukh; by Edited by Jan Harvey)
