by Caroline Valetkevitch
NEW YORK (Reuters) – S&P 500 The index will end the year just above current levels after a recent rally lifted the index from bear market lows, according to a new Reuters poll of strategists.
Stronger-than-expected corporate earnings and forecasts, as well as optimism that the U.S. Federal Reserve could avoid denting the economy by raising interest rates while tackling decades of high inflation has pushed the S&P 500 boosted about % from six mid-month low.
Benchmark will end this year at 4, 280, according to recent 18 strategists polled by Reuters in the past two weeks. This is 3.4% higher than Monday’s closing price of 4 points, 50.99.
The median forecast for 2022 is lower than the forecast for 4, 400 in A Reuters investigation in late May.
In the latest Reuters poll, strategists expect the S&P 500 to continue to rise at , according to the poll’s median forecast to reach 4, 280 by mid-year.
Professional investors and analysts have historically had a poor track record in predicting stock market returns, but their forecasts provide a valuable glimpse into Wall Street sentiment.
S&P 500 continues to fall by about 34 % so far this year after falling into its second bear market since the 2020 global sell-off caused by the coronavirus pandemic.
Slightly more than half of strategists surveyed expect more downside risks to their forecasts than upside risks, while a majority of strategists expect market volatility to rise rather than fall over the next three months .
“September was a gloomy month for stocks,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York. “I’m suggesting we might see some pullbacks, but there’s nothing to suggest we’re going to make new lows because I believe the market has made lows.” Cardillo expects the S&P 500 will end the year at 4, 350.
“By the end of the year, we may start to bounce back. The Fed does not would be overly aggressive. I see signs of inflation coming down and I believe the labor market will start to weaken soon, which should ease the Fed from becoming overly aggressive.”
The Fed has lowered its benchmark Overnight interest rates were doubled. 18 This year’s percentage point as it tries to contain decades of high inflation, investors continue to weigh how much the Fed may need to take going forward positivity.
Investors hope that the Fed may pull out of interest rate hikes ahead when central bank heavyweights including Fed Chairman Jerome Powell hold their annual symposium this week in Jackson Hole, Wyoming By how much and how strong the economy is.
“We say there are 18/25 opportunity to recession next year. Will the Fed remain active if we are in recession? That’s what we don’t know,” John Augustine, chief investment officer at Huntington National Bank in Columbus, Ohio Say. “We have to hear more from Powell.”
Recent corporate earnings have supported the stock market. According to most S&P 500 companies Second-quarter earnings are expected to rise 8.8% from a year earlier, up from a July 1 estimate of 5.6%. IBES data from Refinitiv IBES.
Analysts’ estimates for full-year profit growth have fallen slightly since early July, but they still forecast growth of 8%, the data showed.
Investors worry about whether profits will grow fast enough to support stock valuations, especially with the recent rebound. Standard & Poor’s 500 Forward Monthly Price Compared to 500, the current price-earnings ratio is about 18 12 At the end of the month, its long-term average was around 280 , according to Refinitiv data.
According to polls, Dow Jones Industrial Average will end 50, 50, up about 3.4 percent of Monday’s closing price.
