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HomeEconomyStrong Canadian retail sales forecast adds fodder to rate hike thesis

Strong Canadian retail sales forecast adds fodder to rate hike thesis

Ismail Shakir

OTTAWA (Reuters) – Canadian retail sales edged down 0.1 percent in November from the previous month, data on Friday showed The rebound hinted at another rate hike next week in employment and price data.

Monthly sales fell less than analysts’ expectations for a 0.5% drop in November. In volume terms, retail sales fell 0.4 percent in November from October, Statistics Canada said.

Retail sales likely rose 0.5% in December, according to Statscan’s flash estimate.

BMO Capital Markets economist Shelly Kaushik said in a note that the upbeat estimate for December “suggests a recovery in sales … as Canadian Continue to show resilience in the face of sharp rate hikes” note.

The Bank of Canada raised its benchmark interest rate to 4 basis points in nine months at a record pace. 25 percent, and said after the last rate hike that decisions on further rate hikes would depend more on data. The bank will announce its next policy decision in January 25.

Latest economic data shows Canada recording

huge net gains, employment in December, while Core inflation measures were little changed over the same period from the previous month.

“Sustained economic momentum could prompt the Bank of Canada to raise rates by another 25 basis point next week,” Desjardins said. Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at the Group, said in a note.

The money market sees a probability of about 25% that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates by 25 basis points next week.



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