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This is the ultimate boom-or-bust rotation in MLB

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The Rangers’ rotation underwent a drastic overhaul this offseason, with Texas offering more than $260 million guaranteed to bring in five starters.

Rangers had the No. 2 ERA in the majors last season Six (4.63), while Texas starters combined for just 5.8 (according to FanGraphs), the fifth-lowest total in Major League Baseball, so it’s no surprise the club decided to focus on improving its starting staff. But the extent of the transformation is astonishing. In an offseason move, two-time Cy Young winner Jacob DeGroe signed a five-year, $185 million contract in free agency. Additionally, the Rangers brought back Martin Perez with a qualifying offer of $19.8 million, signed free agents Andrew Heaney ($25 million over two years) and Nathan Eowaldi ($34 million over two years), And traded for Jack Odorizzi. They also have Jon Gray staying, who joins the team after 2021 on a four-year, $56 million deal.

Whichever team the Rangers pick, it will be a fun one experiment, but the pitchers they’ve chosen make this one of the most interesting situations in all of baseball heading into the 2023 season.

deGrom, Pérez, Heaney, Eovaldi, Odorizzi and Gray are all 31 or Above, the average 2023 season is nearly 33 years old. Most have significant injury histories. In fact, all but Perez have spent time on the injured list through 2022.

However, this group also has significant upside. So there appears to be a gap the size of Texas between the best-case and worst-case scenarios involving the Rangers’ 2023 rotation. Of course, you could say that for many starting employees. But when it comes to this Rangers team, you don’t have to squint to see either of those situations going on.

Here’s a closer look at MLB’s ultimate boom-or-bust rotation.

Best-case scenario: MLB’s best rotation?

    FanGraphs’ depth chart projections are a good example of how the Rangers’ rotation might stack up against some of MLB’s other elite employees if all goes well.

second? Look no further than the Rangers. Expected 2023 SP War, according to FanGraphs Depth Chart

    Yankees: 16.7

    Wandering Team: 15.6

    Brewers: 15.0

    Braves: 14.4

      Metropolis: 13.8
      Phillies: 13.8

      However, these projections arguably don’t even represent a best-case scenario for Texas’ rotation. While some innings predictions are optimistic — FanGraphs has deGrom, Gray and Heaney combining close to 500 frames — performance estimates are a bit conservative, as most predictions tend to be.

      For example, Eovaldi (estimated 2.3 WAR) and Pérez (1.8) have The season is worth much more, with Eovaldi producing 5.7 WAR in 2021 and Pérez producing 3.8 WAR last year. DeGrom (projected 5.5 WAR) was a 6.9 WAR pitcher in 2019, his last full, healthy season.

      If all three can replicate these events in 2023, then their Total value could be 5.0 to 7.0 more than FanGraphs projected WAR, and maybe give the Rangers the best rotation in MLB.

      The worst situation: Numerous injuries and setbacks

      One doesn’t need to look too far to see the worst-case scenario for this group.

      Just last season, Heaney, Eovaldi and Gray combined for 69 starts ( 71 overall appearances) and produced 6.1 WAR. If that happens again, the Rangers will have to rely on Odorizzi, Dane Dunning, Cole Ragans and/or Glenn Otto — a quartet combined for 2.3 WAR in 87 starts in 2021 — than they might want to. more.

      Then there is Pérez, who burst out at that age with 31 games in 2022, Posted a career-best 2.89 ERA and 3.8 WAR in 32 starts. From 2012-21, Perez had a 4.71 ERA and 11.6 WAR in 1,102 2/3 innings.

      It’s not farfetched to think that Pérez will return to that level in 2023. If that happens, and deGrom, Heaney, Eovaldi and Gray do what they did last year, we could see a situation where the Rangers combined for less than 8.0 WAR among those five pitchers.

      Intermediate case: some hits, some misses

          Third in Rangers rotation The first (and most likely) scenario is that some of their moves work, while others don’t.

          It is unrealistic to expect any rotation player to be healthy throughout the season, this That’s especially true for this team. From a performance standpoint, there are some question marks as well. If deGrom makes 30-plus starts, he’s a solid option for the AL Cy Young award, while Eovaldi and Gray are fairly predictable at this point in their careers, but Pérez and Heaney are total wild cards.

          We have covered Perez’s performance in 2022 and his past at that time stark contrast between the results. Heaney is in a similar situation. He entered last season with a 4.72 ERA through his first eight seasons, including a 5.83 ERA with the 2021 Angels and Yankees, but he thrived in the Dodgers’ ecosystem a year ago. growing up.

          The southpaw finished 2022 with a personal best ERA (3.10 ), K/9 (13.6) and K/BB ratio (5.79) ), despite only 72 2/3 innings. Unlike Perez, who has started at least 29 times in a season four times, Heaney has started more than 23 times only once (2018).

          Although this middle case will be better than the worst case, but for the game For cavalry, it may still drop to an “L”.

          While Texas has been busy with rotations this offseason, the club hasn’t Do whatever it takes to tackle an offense that ranks 12th in MLB in scoring (707) and is tied for 19th in wRC+ (98). Nathaniel Lowe (141), Corey Seager (117), Adolis García (112), Marcus Semien Semien (107) and Mitch Garver (101) are the only Rangers with at least 100 appearances and a wRC+ of 100 (representing league average) or better in 2022. Try to achieve exhilarating success. Otherwise, they could miss the playoffs for the seventh straight year.



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