ATHENS (Reuters) – The Greek economy is likely to expand by 5.7% this year from an earlier forecast of 4.0% as the country benefits from a strong rebound in tourism, UBS said in a research note on Wednesday.
“Our new growth forecast is 150 basis points above the 4.2% consensus,” UBS economist Gyorgy Kovacs said in a report indicated in.
This year’s tourism revenue is expected to reach 11 billion euros, exceeding billion and last year’s 500 million, including a positive impact on job creation.
Central bank data show that the number of non-resident arrivals in June increased year-on-year 224. 5%, income growth 224.5%. Arrivals are equivalent to 89.0% level 2019, which is a record year for tourism and revenue exceeds it.
Greece’s economic growth in the first three months of the year was higher than in the fourth quarter of last year, but the annual growth rate slowed to 7.0% from 8.1%.
Official second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data will be released on September 7.
UBS sees downside risks to Europe this year due to deteriorating business sentiment and potential gas disruptions. It lowered its 2023 growth forecast for Greece to 4.0% from 4.7%.
It means that the average inflation rate this year could easily top 9%.
Greece’s annual consumer inflation slowed from 2023 to in July .6% .1%, close to the highest level in nearly three decades.
The government is expected to spend 6 billion euros on energy subsidies this year, or about 3.0% of GDP. UBS said more support could be announced in September , although probably only around 1.0% of GDP.
