Team Bloody Elbow has made predictions for UFC 278, and most of us (but not all!) will join Kamaru Usman against Leon Edwards to defend his welterweight title. As for the co-main event, Victor Rodriguez singled out Luke Rockhold over Paulo Costa. Opinions also lean towards Jose Aldo for W over Merab Dvalishvili.
NOTE : Forecasts are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. The explanation behind each choice is not required, and some writers choose not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Zane Simon entered all of his predictions on Wednesday without adding any explanation, he doesn’t know if he’d be the only side backing a fighter in any given fight.
Kamaru Usman vs. Leon Edwards
Anton Tabuena: Usman has been great lately improving his boxing and using his wrestling more these days, I don’t think the guy who beat him was a fighter or fighter looking to get a big shot. Usman didn’t really dive for a fall, and didn’t do it any more – because of an injury, so to speak? – So to overthrow a dominant champion, I believe it has to be someone who can really pick him out of his feet, and it will hold up most of the time, but also be able to do it in crunch time and the occasional knockout defense. Is it Edwards? It’s still hard to tell because Usman’s boxing and speed in the final rounds may have given him problems, but I believe it was a more interesting fight than any of his other title defenses. Can Edwards surpass him from the outside by showing off his more dynamic kickboxing? It’s really hard to play against Usman, but I think Edwards has the best chance of any welterweight right now. Fk it, I’ll be upset. Leon Edwards decided by split.
Mookie Alexander: Leon Edwards is a very good fighter , but not a dynamic athlete, a serious finishing threat, or someone who can get Usman into sloppy defense and boxing, I don’t see his path to victory. Edwards wrestling is underrated, but Kamaru is a truly talented wrestler with a harrowing top game. Edwards may be a more technical forward than Usman, especially at range, but he’s not very strong and he’s also more prone to injury than Usman has shown. Edwards also has a worrisome habit of struggling late in games — against Gunnar Nelson in round 3 and Nate Diaz in round 5 — that won’t go up against the champions. We’ve seen this showdown before, and I haven’t had much to watch since to dissuade him from picking Usman again. Kamaru Usman.
Zane Simon: I’m not sure if this fight will actually start and become something exciting or if it’s just going to stay low all the time, both guys testing and stimulating their gap opponent’s armor , without opening up to any big rewards. Either way, though, I’m not very confident in Edwards’ path to victory. Edwards earned his title by changing the game with a cunning sniper range-hitting game, heavy hits, and a shocking rock-solid knockout and counter-wrestling match. When he’s at his best, he’ll land hard from the outside, grab a couple of big knees or elbows instead, and hit the ball to stop the opponent from gaining any momentum. Due to his interest in knockdowns, and because he often only throws one or two strikes at a time, his output is low, and even if he has a strong technical advantage, he is rarely knocked out. Against Usman, he ran up against a man who would almost certainly not budge in a wrestling match, using the clenched score to push Edwards away and control him. At this point, Edwards’ best path is through range strikes, where he’s not a big KO threat and throws, less offense. If I assume Usman sees the final bell, then I have to assume he’ll be busy until there. Kamaru Usman is up to the decision.
Choose Usman’s crew: Zane, Mookie, Stephanie, Dane, Connor
Select Edwards employees: Victor, Anton
Luke Rockhold vs. Paul Costa
Anton Towers Buena: Rockhold has to play a perfect game here, shoot from the perimeter and find a way to get him down on the mat. His heavily underrated top-flight game will certainly lead to an end from there, but can he even be knocked down before Costa gets tough? Maybe, but the smart choice is still Costa, because he really doesn’t need much to end the game. Paul Costa in Tseung Kwan O.
Mookie Alexander: This The fight depends on how stupid Costa wants to fight, and whether he’s willing to engage in what Rockhold does best. It’s very likely that Rockhold will collapse as soon as it gets hit hard. That jaw is already cooked and Costa will catch him at some point. Paul Costa of TKO, 1st round.
Zane Simon: Unless they get a new Luke Lockhold, this fight seems tailor-made for Paul Costa to go out and do something violent. Paul Costa was knocked out in the first round.
Personnel Pick Rockhold: Victor
Casting Costa: Zane, Mookie, Stephie, Anton, Dayne, Connor
Jose Aldo vs. Mehrab Devalishvili
Anton Tabuena: Why Dillashaw won the championship with a controversial decision, USADA suspension and KO loss while Aldo played an impressive three Game winning streak? Could someone please explain to me why a legend like Aldo needs four straight wins to get a Young Killer victory? Anyway, Dvalishvili is good, but I think
if
Father time hasn’t caught up with Aldo, and his recent fights haven’t dropped much, and this game is in his favor. He’s the better striker, which is the style he usually likes. Hopefully he can claim a well-deserved title after that. Jose Aldo by Decision.
Mookie Alexander: I would seriously consider Dvalishvili in five rounds. For three rounds, I backed Aldo. Aldo’s 135’s knockdown defense didn’t drop that much compared to 145. In a grueling stand-up fight with Petr Yan, he was rarely contained to exhaustion. Dvalishvili isn’t great at keeping the top spot, and unless he’s really ruthlessly hyped in wrestling, Aldo will tag him. Melab’s striker is better than I thought, but he’s still fit for a classic Aldo counter-attack or two, and I can see him having some serious problems early on when Jose was at his sharpest. JOSE ALDO Decided.
Zane Simon: There are two people who participated in this fight and liked it. For Aldo, Dvalishvili still doesn’t have much range play, but has been feeling more and more of a boxer lately and this is a huge opportunity. If Dvalishvili is going to spend most of his fight with Aldo on his feet, getting into the pocket with powerful hooks and uppercuts, Aldo has all the tools to make his reads and counter-attacks as hard as Marlon Moraes. On the other hand, since Aldo dropped to 135, his downing defense and wrestling overall seem to have lost a beat. Even more worrisome, when Aldo was indeed brought down, the results seemed very draining for him. If Dvalishvili forces Aldo straight out of the gate, it feels like a fight where he can go 3 rounds non-stop and win. I would think that’s the more likely outcome, but I hope we’ll know more about how this fight will play out after the first minute or so. Merab Dvalishvili up to decision.
Picking Aldo staff: Mookie, Stephie, Victor , Anton, Connor
Select Dvalishvili staff: Zane, Dane
Wu Yanan and Lucy Pudilova
Mookie Alexander : For some reason now it appears on the main card. Why? Wu Lucie Pudilova is up to the decision.
Zane Simon: Given that Pudilova no longer fights as recklessly as she used to, and Wu Yanan can’t help but fight, there’s a good chance this fight is closer than it should be. However, Pudilova has been adding some strength and some finesse to her fight, which should be enough for her to be reintroduced to the UFC with a scrappy fight. Lucie Pudilova makes a decision.
Staff Picking Wu: Anton
Picking Pudilova’s staff: Zane, Mookie, Stephie, Victor , Dayne, Connor
Tyson Pedro vs. Harry Hensack
Mookie Alexander: Pedro looked good after four years without a fight, and Huns…stopped quickly at heavyweight. What is he going to do in 205? Tyson Pedro was knocked out in the first round.
Zane Simon: The only thing that feels less likely to succeed than long-term light heavyweight is long-term heavyweight dropping to light heavyweight. The 205-year-old is too fast, too dynamic, and hits too hard. Tyson Pedro passes KO, first round.
Select the Dro’s staff: Zane, Mucci, Stephen, Victor, Anton, Dane, Connor
Staff Picking Hunsucker:
Marcin Tybura vs. Alexandr Romanov
Mookie Alexander: Tybura is usually a poor starter, and he managed to get through his efforts and get some comeback wins. If he starts slowly against Romanov, he won’t be able to recover. Alexandr Romanov smashed by Hulk, Round 2 .
Zane Simon: Usually the first and only question to ask Marcin Tybura fighting is “Can Marcin Tybura beat this guy?” If the answer is no, then he probably won’t win. It’s hard to imagine a worse matchup than someone like Alexander Romanov could imagine. Alexander Romanov TKO Round 2.
Staff pick Tybura:
Staff pick Romanov: Zane, Mookie, Stephen, Victor, Anton, Dane, Connor
Leonardo Santos and Jared Gordon
Mookie Alexander: Santos is 95 years old and he may not be able to keep up with Gordon pace of. Jared Gordon of TKO, round 2 .
Zane Simon: Two or three years ago, I would pick Leo Santos here every day and twice on Sunday. His combination of nimble ranged power strikes and deadly counter-wrestling submissions seems to perfectly chew on someone who must have pockets for a fight, like Gordon. Even so, I wouldn’t be surprised if the first round was absolutely brutal for “The Flash,” after all he’s already been knocked out twice in the first round by the Brazilian fighter with surprising pitching willingness. At this point, however, time seems to have turned the Santos into a single-wheeled, fuel-tank fighter entirely. At that point, I can’t just count on him for a quick KO. Jared Gordon via TKO, round 3.
Pick Santos Staff:
Pick Gordon Staff: Zane, Mookie, Anton, Dane, Connor
Sean Woodson vs. Louis Saldana
Zane Simon: Two high volumes Lightweight. One likes to play a lot, one likes to play a lot. A very interesting scrap can be made. It’s not just Saldana, however, Woodson really seems to enjoy the fast-paced, constant-trading battle of wills, and his technique works better in this situation. If Woodson can make a splash on Saldana, I think he’ll find a lot of open space for a clean punch. Sean Woodson passed the decision.
Pick Woodson employees: Zane, Anton, Dane, Mookie, Connor
Pick Saldana Staff:
AJ Fletcher vs. Angie Lusa
Zane Simon: This should is a saliva. Both guys are bricks, both throw slams, both have great jaws, and neither has a ton of compelling defense. For Fletcher, he’s developing a very crafty wrestling and sub-game to complement his hands, but as long as he’s at welterweight, he’s been dealing with a distinct tentacle disadvantage among his peers. Loosa, on the other hand, has gone the long, slow path of being a Hooft disciple, learning a lot of good basics, but the game isn’t quite there yet. Fletcher is expected to start soon, but if he can’t finish, it could be Lusa’s full attack in the third round. I will take Ange Loosa’s decision.
Pick Fletcher Staff: Anton, Mookie
Pick Lusa staff: Zane, Dane, Connor
Amir Arbaz and Francisco Figueiredo
Zane Simon: Even coming off that super slick knee pad, it’s hard to know how Figueiredo will show up every time he hits the octagon. He doesn’t have his brother’s brutal combination of power and speed, and without those factors, his slow-paced punches have a better chance at 125. Albazi, on the other hand, likes to work behind his jab and create a busy wall of strikes when he knocks down opponents. Given his ability to stay calm in the cage, I don’t think he’ll put himself in too much danger ahead of time. If so, I would expect him to win most of the rounds. Amir Albazi passed the decision.
Pick Albazi staff: Zane, Anton, Dayne, Mookie, Connor
Pick Figueiredo’s staff:
Oriqi Leng and Jay Palin
Zane Simon: Given Orichlen’s love of brutal violence and Jay Palin’s punch, Palin definitely has a chance to win here. But despite his preference for power punches, his limited style makes him a fairly predictable opponent and doesn’t lead to many KO wins even in the regional arena. If Palin can’t cold-knock Orich down, it’s hard to see him keeping up with the variety of battle-ready talents and insane will to deal damage. Orich’s cold decision. Staff Picking Orich Cold: Zane, Anton, Dayne, Mookie, Victor
Staff Picking Perrin:
Daniel Lacerda vs. Victor Altamirano
Zane Simon: A toss to see if Lacerda can put every ounce of energy into him With every move you make, knock him out before he’s exhausted. I would pick Lacerda to replace him, but if he doesn’t, Altamirano is tough enough to make this fight really tough for him. Submitted by Daniel Lacerda, Round 1.
Staff Picking Lacerda: Zane
Picking Altamirano staff: Anton, Dayne, Connor, Mookie
