Dodgers record ratio The Mets are good, but are the two teams still neck and neck? (Caitlin Mulcahy/Getty Images)
Over the next three days, the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets will play three games at Citi Field In the game, the Diamond Admiral did not have Davis. Just Goliath.
The question is: which is the bigger, worse Goliath?
The simple answer can be adequately summed up as: “This is the Dodgers, stupid.” Since June 29, they have Won 44 of 54 games, almost unbeatable. Their 89-38 record puts them on track to win 114 games, and their 286-point deficit gives them a chance to become the 10th modern player to finish or above the plus-300 threshold.
However, the Mets have shown they can play a four-game series with the Dodgers in Los Angeles in early June race. They also did better than most of the guys who were with the boy in blue. Since July 13, the Dodgers are 33-8 and the Mets are 28-13. Even though the Mets have 8 games left to end the Dodgers’ national-league record pace — and Home-court advantage throughout the NL playoffs — both clubs have roughly the same odds of winning the playoffs by a large margin. FanGraphs puts the Dodgers and Mets’ World Series chances at 29.9 and 27.1, respectively. In other words, a correct comparison of the Dodgers and Mets The Mets can’t simply take their Record start and end. Compare crime
Harry How/Getty Images
If we could use a time machine, we wouldn’t have to go back that far to find the right environment to talk to the Dodgers A heated debate with the Mets’ offense. As recently as June 26, both teams were separated by one point. However, things have changed since then, as the Dodgers have won over their Queens rivals a 79-point advantage.
Graph via Google Sheets
The Dodgers have had a particularly hot bat since the All-Star break, with an overall rating 36 above the wRC+ average %. They also scored 224 points (or 6.1 points per game) and hit 52 home runs in 37 games. Mookie Betts responsible for 11 of the latter, Freddie Freeman and Treyatt Na was not the only one joining his craze. Of the 11 players with at least 45 appearances, only Chris Taylor and Cody Bellinger
- didn’t wRC+ over 100.
- Dodgers: .728 (MLB No. 1)
- Rob Friedman @PitchingNinja
- Jacob deGrom, dirty 93mph slider and 100mph fastball combo. 😷
[I’ll call TKO & end AB after that Slider]
9Ks to 5. pic.twitter.com/wwY01DRunb
- metropolis:0.9 war
This projection can be said to be the same as the present And near misses – the future of the Dodgers bullpen. The five-man team of Evan Phillips, David Price, Alex Vesia, Caleb Ferguson and Chris Martin had a 1.43 ERA in the second half. They also removed flame-throwing right-hander Bruce Dale Gratroll from the injured list last week, followed by Blake Trining and Tommy Kahnler.
However, there is a question for Craig Kimbrel. While Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has been giving up on Kimbrel’s saves, the veteran right – The hander often keeps things interesting with a 4.14 ERA. He had a prime opportunity to make a statement against the Miami Marlins on Monday, but failed to pass the 10th after pitching a perfect ninth.
The Mets have no such concerns. Edwin Diaz had just eight runs in 51.1 innings and struck out 99 of the 198 batters he faced. His fastball and slider have never been this bad:
Rob Friedman @PitchingNinja Edwin Diaz 🔥🎺 pic.twitter.com/Fto7FPM1Tn
The bridge to Diaz looked wobbly for a while, but not so much now Adam Ottavino and Seth Lugo have started shoving. The three right-handers combined for 1.18 ERA and 62 strikeouts in 45.2 innings in the second half.
Compared to the other three categories, this one feels like an apples and oranges comparison. But while we’ll hear arguments in favor of the Dodgers’ number of pens, it’s the quality of the Mets’ pens that we find more appealing.
Final judgment (with hedge )
Wally Skalij/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images
So, Who is the bigger and worse Goliath?
Now, it’s the Dodgers. Obviously, the Dodgers.
While we prefer the Mets’ rotation and bullpen, the gap there isn’t supporting the Dodgers’ offense and defense. As if there were good reasons to keep them on track for one of the greatest seasons in MLB history.
If this week’s series proves to be a preview of the National League Championship Series, the Dodgers will also have a significant advantage over the Mets. advantage. Unless they cede the top spot in the NL to the Mets in the closing stages, they’ll maintain home-court advantage at Dodger Stadium, where they’ve been beaten just 16 times in 61 games all season.
But it’s a last minute hedge: we’re not going Take away the Mets’ chance to be the last NL team, and neither should anyone else.
Even compared to the Dodgers, Cardinals and Atlanta, the Mets are one thing that stands out among a handful of elite teams The thing is they are tried and tested. They have 37 wins against the winning team and no other NL club has more than 30.
These Mets, too, can win from 2019 The Washington Nationals believe that a team really needs to be in the playoffs Opponents kept out of the gate were a handful of untouchable pitchers. deGrom and Scherzer are to the Mets what Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg are to the Nats, and they don’t even have Díaz in their bullpen.
Anyway, baseball should be better than this week’s series to be the Dodgers and Mets in 2022 The last confrontation. Between four and seven games, it sounds like deciding which team is better.
Statistics provided by Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Experts.
- Major League Baseball @MLB
- . @mookiebetts a> Keep it hot! That’s No. 30 on the former MVP HR of the Year rankings. pic.twitter.com/llzPUfrl2p
In all fairness, the Mets hitters are averaging 4.7 hits per game this season, and also have 122 wRC+ in the second half. Jeff McNeil is hitting .366 since the break, while Francisco Lindo and Pete Alonso have 146 wRC+ and 12 homers between them.
Still, in the context of this discussion, good in a vacuum and good compared to the Dodgers are two very different things.
The Dodgers’ offense now also doesn’t have any exhaust-like weaknesses. Its power may have been most pronounced in the second half, but it averaged 0.303 in scoring position (third in MLB) and 0.210 in batting average (first in MLB) Nor can it be ignored.
Harry How/Getty Images
Quantify team defense What is the best way? Answers will vary, but the most straightforward way is to assess the efficiency of said team in turning the ball out.
For this, this is not a match:
Mets: .693 (Major 19th in the league)
The Mets are better on other metrics, including above average. They’re a plus-10 compared to the Dodgers’ minus-one, and it’s hard to overstate how well Lindor and McNeill have been as a doubles duo recently. In August alone, they got 10 OAAs. Still, the Dodgers have the best defensive player on either side.
That’s Bates, who was his 3rd with an above-average 5 outs and 12 defensive runs Fight for six Golden Glove awards. The team as a whole is a bright spot for the latter, as its 71 DRS puts it 20 points ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals for the No. 1 spot in the NL.
Los Angeles Dodgers @Dodgers Team
They call him Mookie, but we call him Superman. pic.twitter.com/RT8CMkXFrw
One thing the Dodgers do is transfer better than most. When they switch gears, the opposing team hits just .261 against them, the lowest in the NL, according to estimates from FanGraphs.
Compared to Start Rotation
Jim McIsaac/Getty Images
As a whole, the Dodgers starters have been flashing. Their 2.67 ERA is the best in baseball and 40 points ahead of the Houston Astros, and they are the only team with four starters with a ERA below 3.00.
While Dustin May is not among those four, since he returned from Tommy John surgery, he has The stuff shown in both games is filthy:
Rob Friedman @PitchingNinja
Incredible stuff from Dustin May last night. pic.twitter.com/1th6qk2by8
However, despite May’s triumphant return, “healthy” isn’t the first word anyone will associate with the Dodgers rotation.
Walker Buller finally had his second Tommy John surgery on Tuesday, and the Dodgers also lost compatriot Clayton J. Kershaw (back), and as of Monday, NL ERA leader Tony Gonsolin. The latter has a strained forearm and will reportedly only need two starts, although that seems optimistic.
Meanwhile, the Mets get Jacob deGrom to make his season debut on Aug. 2 after a long recovery from a shoulder problem . The two-time Cy Young winner looked as usual as he fired triple-digit fastballs and mid-’90s sliders:
Since Scherzer and Chris Bassitt have also dominated lately, the Mets have been in a league of their own since deGrom’s return. The three best starters have a 2.14 ERA. After they move on, not much of a drop is expected as Taijuan Walker has conceded no more than 3 goals in 12 of his last 13 games, while Carlos Carrasco will return from a strained slash in early September recovery.
While Kershaw should also be back in early September, FanGraphs’ forecast for the rest of the season isn’t as bullish as the Dodgers’ rotation Like they were in the Mets. The latter is planned for 3.6 WAR, while the former is for 3.0 WAR.
Compare the bullpen
Rich Schultz/Getty Images
to some extent, Relief pitching is another area where the Dodgers seem to be getting stronger. Their bullpen has a 3.11 ERA this season and a 2.75 ERA in the second half. 4.11, the remaining season WAR projections for both units are the same:
Dodge Team: 0.9 War